Airline Industry Finds Stability: OAG

Global airline capacity seems to be stabilizing after two turbulent years, reports the Official Airline Guide (OAG), with seat capacity remaining stagnant for the past few weeks. 

“With only minor changes to planned capacity for the rest of November and December (traditionally a month of minor schedule changes) it looks like global capacity for the year will settle at 4.7 billion compared to the 3.6 billion of last year (+31 percent) although still 9 percent below the 5.8 billion of 2019,” said John Grant, Expert Analyst, OAG, via a OAG report. 

The OAG estimates capacity will remain stable for the coming four months, still remaining below 2019 levels. In January 2023, capacity is forecasted to be 14 percent smaller than in 2019; in February 2023, capacity is forecasted to be 25 percent smaller. However, “these are two of the hardest months of the year” and most airlines lose money if they lack a sensible approach, explained Grant. 

“Interestingly, among the top twenty few countries have broken through their 2019 capacity level; Mexico has been well ahead of the curve for most of the pandemic event and Spain is the closest with a 0.035 percent increase that sadly gets rounded down to zero but on average around 15 percent fewer seats are on sale in the top twenty markets this week compared to 2019,” said Grant. Mexico’s current capacity is 20.1 percent higher that it was in 2021 and 16 percent higher than in 2019, according to the OAG. 

The airline industry’s gradual return to pre-pandemic follows the improvement of on-time performance in most markets and fallouts in cancellation rates, said Grant.