Aviation Recovered 75 Percent of 2019’s Levels

Aviation has reached 75 percent of its 2019 levels, while Latin America is at 90 percent, according to Boeing’s “Commercial Market Outlook 2022–2041” report. The planemaker forecasts that the industry will grow its fleet by 2.8 percent year-over-year until 2041. Airline traffic is expected to grow by 4.4 percent and plane replacement by 60 percent during that period. By 2041, Boeing forecasts that Latin America will have a fleet of 2,880 aircraft with a service market value of US$165 billion. 

“The last two years have undoubtedly been tumultuous across commercial aerospace, with the 2020 and 2021 [commercial market outlooks (CMO)] providing perspective on the fundamental resilience of commercial aviation,” states Ihssane Mounir, Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales and Marketing, Boeing. 

Airlines’ actions to recover after the pandemic contributed to a positive forecast for 2041. During the pandemic, airlines in Latin America kept airplanes active to keep paperwork and maintenance up to date, allowing them to go into service rapidly. Airlines in the region also maintained open networks in terms of connectivity and had more flights with smaller planes to reduce costs. These actions allowed Latin American airlines to improve their pace of recovery. Latin American domiciled carriers are expanding worldwide and regrowing their network after the disruption, according to Boeing.

Mexico is projected to have a 33 percent growth in passenger traffic over the next 15 years and tourism will be a key contributor to the economy. “Mexico, in particular has done a good job in keeping its market open to demand from North America, which helped the airlines stay healthy. Latin America, in general, is doing a good job in this sense and they continue to respond to ongoing conditions relative to how the rest of the world is doing,” said David Franson, Regional Director and Market Analyst, Boeing, to MBN.  

Despite the challenges of the last two years, air travel demand drivers have changed little. “Boeing forecasts the commercial support and services market to be worth US$ 3.6 trillion through 2041. Commercial services will continue to rebound as aircraft utilization returns to pre-pandemic levels and play a critical role in both the ongoing market recovery as well as long-term industry growth,” reads the company’s report.