Brazil, Mexico, Colombia Lead 60% of LatAm Air Cargo

Brazil, Colombia and Mexico accounted for approximately 60% of Latin America’s air cargo traffic, with more than 60% of that volume moving outbound, according to data presented at Cargo Facts Latam 2026. The figures underscore the concentration of regional flows in three key markets as e-commerce expansion and nearshoring continue to reshape trade patterns. Mexico also recorded an approximately 8% increase in imports from the United States beginning in January 2025, contrasting with declines in other major North American corridors.

During the event, Cargo Facts Consulting presented a data-driven assessment of regional market conditions. Guillermo Ochovo, director at the firm, said Latin America’s air cargo sector last year was “primarily oriented toward outbound transport, with more than 60% of total volumes consisting of exports.” This structure reflects the region’s enduring role as a supplier of perishables and manufactured goods, while inbound volumes linked to consumer demand are gradually expanding.

Ochovo said e-commerce has been a key driver of inbound flows from the United States, with volumes posting “solid growth rates,” albeit at a slower pace than in 2024. Perishable goods remain a foundational commodity segment in the regional mix. He noted that India and Mexico recorded the highest e-commerce growth rates in 2025, surpassing more mature markets. In Latin America, digital commerce expansion is supported by relatively low market penetration, cross-border trade growth and nearshoring-related supply chain realignments.

Import trends into the United States diverged markedly in 2025. Mexico posted an increase of approximately 8% from January onward, while China and Canada experienced declines of about 36% and 26%, respectively. The data point to a reconfiguration of North American trade flows tied to shifting supply chains and tariff-related adjustments. Mexico is emerging “as a center of both growth and logistics,” Ochovo said, citing its strategic trade positioning and expanding domestic consumption base.

Capacity Constraints Shape the 2026 Outlook

Ochovo questioned whether the industry is entering “a freight cycle driven by replacement rather than expansion.” He noted that the global freighter fleet grew by less than 1% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025. Certification delays, excess aircraft capacity and raw material constraints have slowed production and passenger-to-freighter conversion programs, limiting near-term supply growth.

As of December 2025, the global active jet fleet totaled 2,257 aircraft, with dedicated freighters accounting for 11% of that figure. Over the past two decades, the freighter fleet has expanded by 529 aircraft, representing growth of approximately 30%. Despite this long-term expansion, projections indicate a gradual recovery in 2026 rather than a rapid capacity surge. Fleet availability remains a structural constraint in balancing demand and supply.

Regional data suggest that while Latin America’s cargo market remains export-oriented, it is becoming more complex. E-commerce and nearshoring are reshaping demand patterns, particularly in Mexico, which continues to deepen its integration into North American trade networks. At the same time, constrained fleet growth and shifting import dynamics point to a measured capacity outlook. Carriers are recalibrating route networks to accommodate both outbound production flows and inbound consumer-driven volumes.

Global Policy and Trade Realignment Drive Demand

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that global air cargo demand grew 3.4% in 2025, influenced by trade policy shifts and evolving supply routes. “Tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty have reshaped global trade and supply chains,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. He added that industry discussions are increasingly focused on how the sector can adapt as trade lanes evolve and as speed and reliability become more critical.

IATA noted that global trade has remained resilient despite policy volatility, with air cargo enabling rapid adjustments. Air freight supported front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff deadlines and facilitated the rerouting of Chinese exports to alternative markets. It is also playing a growing role in transporting artificial intelligence-related components and other high-value goods. While overall trade growth may moderate in 2026, IATA projects global air cargo traffic will expand by 2.6%.

Industry discussions at Transport Logistic Americas in Miami reinforced this outlook. Executives indicated that Latin America is transitioning from a traditional supplier role toward becoming a more diversified air cargo growth region. Direct Asia–Latin America freighter routes are reshaping trade corridors, while Mexico, Central America and northern Brazil are emerging as both sourcing and consumption hubs. “Trade is like water — it finds a way. And it is finding its way into new markets across Latin America,” said Tom Crabtree, managing director, Transport Research Advisory.