Caribbean Routes Fall as Extra-Regional Soar 73%

Air connectivity within the Caribbean has declined 13% since 2010, while links with markets outside the region have expanded 73% over the same period, according to NACO, the airport consultancy arm of Haskoning. The data indicate a structural shift in traffic flows, with capacity increasingly concentrated on long- and medium-haul routes. For aviation stakeholders, the trend signals growing reliance on inbound demand rather than deeper regional integration.

Figures presented during an Airports Council International Latin America and the Caribbean (ACI-LAC) webinar show that intra-Caribbean routes offered approximately 7.5 million seats in 2024. By contrast, services connecting the Caribbean with extra-regional destinations accounted for roughly 83 million seats. 

NACO identified multiple structural constraints behind the decline in regional services, including high travel costs for local populations, airport infrastructure limitations and fragmented regulatory frameworks. Institutional design and direct competition with North American destinations further weigh on network development. 

“All these factors play an important role in determining air connectivity within the region,” said Kateryna Kopylova, senior aviation consultant, NACO. “Moreover, they do not exist in isolation; they depend on each other and there is an interrelationship among them.” 

The consultancy illustrated cost inefficiencies with the example of travel between Bonaire and Barbados. Although the islands are located less than 1,000 kilometers apart, the absence of nonstop service can require passengers to travel 3,483 kilometers via Curaçao and Panama, with total journey times reaching up to 37 hours. Ticket prices range from US$1,180 to US$4,325, highlighting structural barriers to mobility.

By contrast, the extra-regional market is largely driven by inbound tourism from North America, particularly the United States. Including Canada, North America accounts for 284 unique routes to the Caribbean. South America follows with 37 routes, Europe with 32 and Central America with 18. 

In seat capacity terms, North America represents 76% of extra-regional supply, followed by Europe at 13%, South America at 6% and Central America at 4%. 

At the country level, the Dominican Republic leads in extra-regional connectivity, with 52 routes operating more than twice weekly in 2025. Puerto Rico follows with 35 such routes, Jamaica with 25 and Cuba with 24. The Bahamas and Aruba each maintain 20 routes meeting the same frequency threshold, functioning as primary gateways for international traffic.

To address the regional gap, NACO proposed targeted bilateral agreements aimed at identifying viable routes and establishing measurable traffic objectives. The consultancy argues that incremental regulatory alignment could stimulate new services without requiring comprehensive multilateral reform. 

“If this framework begins to demonstrate traffic growth, generate economic impact and gain political credibility, we expect a replication effect,” said Orhun Eren, aviation analyst at NACO. He explained that if country A signs similar bilateral agreements with countries B and C, “then, de facto, countries B and C become very close from a regulatory perspective.” Sequential agreements, he added, could drive convergence over time.

Latin America Records 5% Traffic Growth in 2025

While the Caribbean grapples with connectivity imbalances, Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole recorded 5% passenger growth in 2025, according to preliminary ACI-LAC data. 

“The 5% growth recorded in 2025 confirms the strength of aviation in Latin America and the Caribbean, even in a challenging global environment,” said Rafael Echevarne, director general, ACI-LAC. Argentina posted the highest relative increase, with traffic up 12.7% following the implementation of an open-skies policy. Brazil remained the largest market, handling 234.8 million passengers, up 9.1%, with international traffic rising 14%.

In the Caribbean, passenger traffic increased 1%. The Dominican Republic led with 19.4 million passengers, up 4.6%, while Curaçao recorded 17% growth. Miami International Airport, a major gateway for the region, handled 55.3 million passengers. Jamaica reported a 7.9% decline following the impact of Hurricane Melissa on infrastructure and tourism flows.

Infrastructure and Regulation Remain Structural Constraints

Industry leaders warn that infrastructure and regulatory bottlenecks could limit future expansion. Speaking at the International Economic Forum Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 in Panama City, Peter Cerdá, IATA’s Regional Vice President for the Americas, stressed that demand growth must be matched by investment. 

“We are better connected today than at any other time in our history, but infrastructure is not keeping pace with the demand required by the air transport industry and what passengers expect,” he said. “More flights, more airlines and more interest in the region mean we need infrastructure that accompanies that growth,” Cerdá added.

He also called for regulatory modernization and greater technological integration. “It is not just a matter of building new terminals. We need to maximize the use of technology to improve the passenger experience,” he said, noting that travelers can spend more time in processing than in flight. Stronger public-private coordination, he concluded, will be essential to balance regional integration with international growth.