Global Air Cargo Demand Rises 5.6% in January

Global air cargo demand rose 5.6% year-on-year in January 2026, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). International operations increased 7.2% compared with January 2025. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), grew 3.6% globally and 5.7% in international markets. The cargo load factor increased by 0.9 percentage points to 45.1%, indicating that demand outpaced supply growth at the start of the year.

“The demand for air cargo had a robust start to 2026, recording 5.6% year-on-year growth in January,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. He noted that performance diverged across regions. “Carriers in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Europe all reported faster growth than the global average. In contrast, carriers in the Americas reported overall contractions.”

Africa recorded the strongest regional expansion, with demand rising 18.2% and capacity increasing 6.5%. Asia-Pacific, which accounts for 35.9% of global cargo traffic, posted 7.8% demand growth and 3.3% capacity expansion. Europe reported a 6.9% increase in demand and 4.9% growth in capacity, reaching a cargo load factor of 54.1%. Middle Eastern carriers saw demand rise 9.3% while capacity increased 9.9%.

North America was the only region to report a decline in both demand and capacity, with traffic down 0.5% and available capacity decreasing 0.2%. Latin America and the Caribbean recorded a 2% decline in demand despite a 2.3% increase in capacity, resulting in a cargo load factor of 32%.

IATA cited several macroeconomic indicators supporting cargo activity. Global goods trade expanded 4.9% year on year in December 2025. Jet fuel prices declined 6.5% year on year in January. The global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.8, above the 50-point threshold indicating expansion. The PMI for new export orders reached 49.9, slightly below expansion territory but at its highest level in 10 months.

Walsh said risks remain. “The resilience of air cargo will continue to be tested in the coming months,” he said. He referenced “the long-running uncertainties surrounding evolving US trade policies” and “the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East” as factors that could disrupt global supply chains. He said these issues will be addressed at the World Cargo Symposium in Lima, Peru, scheduled for March 10-12. “Strengthening air cargo’s adaptability and efficiency through digitalization and other measures will be a key focus,” Walsh said.

Trade lane data showed growth across most major corridors. Africa–Asia traffic increased 41.6%, marking seven consecutive months of expansion. Europe–Asia traffic rose 15.2%, extending a 35-month growth trend. Intra-Asia traffic grew 14.3%, while Middle East–Asia volumes increased 12.9%. The Asia–North America corridor declined 0.6% year on year and represents 23.4% of global cargo traffic, based on 2025 data.

In Latin America, structural shifts in trade and logistics continue to reshape the air freight market. The regional air freight market was valued at US$21.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$32.8 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.99%. Brazil, Colombia and Mexico account for roughly 60% of regional cargo traffic, with more than 60% of that volume moving outbound, according to data presented at Cargo Facts Latam 2026. Mexico recorded an 8% increase in imports from the United States beginning in January 2025, contrasting with declines in other North American trade corridors.

Industry participants are evaluating whether the market is entering “a freight cycle driven by replacement rather than expansion.” Global freighter fleet growth remained below 1% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025. As of December, the active global jet fleet totaled 2,257 aircraft, with dedicated freighters representing 11%. Although the freighter fleet has expanded by 529 aircraft over the past two decades, projections indicate only a gradual recovery in 2026, limiting near-term capacity expansion.