Global Air Passenger Demand Falls 2.2% in May: IATA

Global air passenger demand declined 2.2% year over year in May 2026 as the conflict in the Middle East continued to disrupt airline operations, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The decline was driven primarily by a 28.4% drop in traffic among Middle Eastern carriers, although the pace of contraction improved from April, while airlines in most other regions continued to report stable or growing demand. Despite weaker traffic, the global passenger load factor reached a record 83.5% for the month as carriers reduced capacity to better align with demand.

IATA reported that total revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) fell 2.2% compared with May 2025, while available seat kilometers (ASKs) declined 2.3%. As a result, the global passenger load factor increased 0.1 percentage points to 83.5%, marking the highest level ever recorded for the month of May.

Excluding the Middle East, global passenger demand increased 0.7% year over year, indicating that the downturn remained concentrated in regions directly affected by the conflict. 

"Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centered on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4% year-on-year fall. That's a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region's resilience," said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General.

Walsh added that, "We also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China."

International passenger traffic declined 1.6% year over year, while international capacity fell 2.4%. The international passenger load factor increased 0.7 percentage points to 83.7%, also setting a record for the month of May.

Excluding the Middle East, international passenger demand grew 3.1%, underscoring continued strength across most long-haul markets.

Domestic markets posted weaker results. Domestic passenger traffic fell 3.1% compared with May 2025, while capacity declined 2.1%. Consequently, the domestic load factor slipped 0.8 percentage points to 83.0%.

According to IATA, the largest domestic declines occurred in China and the United States. China's domestic market contracted 6.2%, while US domestic traffic declined 1.9%. IATA said the decline in China may have been influenced by higher fares and the timing of the Dragon Boat Festival, which fell in June this year rather than in May.

Other domestic markets continued to expand. Passenger demand increased 10.1% in India, 2.8% in Japan, and 2.8% in Brazil, while Australia remained broadly stable with a 0.1% decline.

Regional performance highlighted an increasing divergence between markets directly affected by geopolitical tensions and those supported by resilient travel demand. Europe posted a 2.7% increase in passenger traffic while capacity grew 1.8%. The region also recorded the world's highest passenger load factor at 85.9%.

Latin America and the Caribbean delivered one of the strongest performances, with passenger demand rising 6.1% and capacity increasing 4.6%. The region's load factor reached 83.4%. Africa also maintained positive momentum, with passenger demand increasing 6.6% and capacity rising 7.0%, resulting in a 73.7% load factor.

Asia-Pacific recorded a 1.4% decline in passenger traffic as capacity fell 2.4%. Despite the decline, airlines in the region maintained a relatively strong 84.3% load factor. North America experienced a more modest downturn, with passenger demand decreasing 0.8% while capacity edged up 0.1%.

The Middle East remained the weakest-performing region. Passenger demand declined 28.4%, capacity fell 23.9%, and the regional load factor dropped 4.7 percentage points to 75.9%.

Outside the Middle East, international markets remained resilient. European airlines increased international passenger traffic by 3.8%, supported in part by a 15% increase in direct traffic between Europe and Asia as carriers continued rerouting flights around Middle Eastern airspace.

IATA noted that year-over-year comparisons continue to be heavily affected by the disruption caused by the Iran conflict but said the pace of recovery is improving. "The impacts of the Iran war continue to cause a highly negative year-on-year traffic comparison, but month-to-month the impact is lessening and the rate of decline was almost half that of April," the association said.

The May traffic report follows IATA's revised industry outlook released in June, which lowered its 2026 airline net profit forecast to US$23 billion, down from an earlier projection of US$45 billion.

The association attributed the downgrade to higher fuel costs following disruptions in global energy markets and continued uncertainty surrounding oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Industry fuel expenses are now expected to reach US$351 billion this year, representing 31.4% of total operating costs.

Despite the higher cost environment, IATA expects the airline industry to remain profitable as passenger traffic continues to grow and aircraft utilization remains high. The association forecasts global passenger traffic will increase 2.1% during 2026, with total passenger numbers exceeding 5.1 billion.

Walsh said airlines continue to face elevated operating costs despite the recent decline in oil prices. "Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time," he said.

He added that uncertainty surrounding oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz means it will take time for lower crude oil prices to translate into lower jet fuel costs.

"In the meantime, airlines operating on a 2.0% margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs," Walsh said.

IATA also reported continued strength in air cargo markets during May, indicating that freight demand remained more resilient than passenger traffic despite ongoing geopolitical disruptions.

Global cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), increased 6.0% year over year, while cargo capacity expanded 1.9%. International cargo demand rose 6.5%, and the global cargo load factor increased 1.8 percentage points to 46.3%.