Global Air Passenger Demand Fell 1.7% in June as Costs Rose: IATA

Global air passenger demand declined 1.7% year over year in June 2026 as higher fuel prices, weaker domestic markets and continued disruptions in the Middle East weighed on airline traffic, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) fell 1.7%, while available seat kilometers (ASK) declined 1.3%, resulting in a global load factor of 84.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from June 2025. Domestic demand contracted 3.0%, while international demand slipped 0.9%, although international traffic excluding the Middle East increased 1.1%.

"Global demand for air travel was down 1.7% in June compared to 2025. This is largely due to domestic market declines in China, the US and Japan, and weak but improving international demand for Middle East carriers," said Willie Walsh, IATA director general. He added that "while Middle East performance improved, renewed tensions will not help the region's recovery and the knock-on impact of rising fuel prices will continue to burden travelers with higher airfares."

Walsh said passenger demand remains resilient despite market pressures. "People continue to travel, which is an important contributor to global economic growth. There is no doubt, however, that stabilizing the situation in the Middle East and normalizing oil supplies would improve prospects for airlines, economies and societies around the world."

Regional performance showed contrasting trends. Asia-Pacific airlines posted a 0.4% increase in international demand despite a 1.1% reduction in capacity, as some carriers reduced short-haul international services because of higher fuel costs. European airlines recorded a 1.5% increase in international traffic, with the Europe-Asia corridor expanding 11.0%, the fastest growth among major international routes. North American carriers reported a 1.0% decline in international demand, while Middle Eastern airlines experienced a 14.0% drop as the effects of the Iran conflict continued to affect traffic, although the pace of decline has eased since April. Latin American airlines increased international demand by 3.5%, and African carriers posted the strongest regional growth at 6.7%.

Domestic markets remained under pressure, with global domestic RPK declining 3.0%. China recorded the largest decrease among major domestic markets at 5.2%, followed by Japan with a 3.8% decline. The US domestic market fell 1.2%, while India declined 0.5%. Brazil was the only major domestic market to post growth, with passenger traffic increasing 0.9%, although its load factor fell 2.5 percentage points. Australia's domestic market remained flat.

The June traffic results follow IATA's decision in June to reduce its 2026 airline industry profit forecast as fuel costs continue to rise. The association now expects airlines to generate US$23 billion in net profit this year, compared to its previous forecast of US$45 billion, while projecting industry revenues of US$1.17 trillion and a net profit margin of 2.0%. IATA estimates the industry's fuel bill will reach US$351 billion in 2026, representing 31.4% of operating expenses, as disruptions in global energy markets continue to increase costs.

Mexico's Airport Groups Report Mixed June Passenger Results 

Mexico's airport industry also reported mixed traffic performance during June despite hosting FIFA World Cup matches. According to Monex, Mexico's three listed airport groups recorded a combined 4.2% year-over-year decline in passenger traffic, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decrease. The downturn reflected a 0.6% decline in domestic traffic and a 6.5% reduction in international traffic.

Performance varied by operator. Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR) reported a 5.8% decline in total passengers, including an 8.5% decrease across its Mexican airports, largely due to weaker traffic in Cancún. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) posted a 3.5% decline overall, although Guadalajara Airport handled 1.57 million passengers, up 6.0% year over year, driven by a 3.4% increase in domestic traffic and an 11.5% rise in international travelers. Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMA) increased passenger traffic 2.1%, supported by international tourism. Monterrey Airport served 1.33 million passengers, with domestic traffic falling 1.6% while international traffic increased 10.3%.

Mexican airlines also reported divergent results. Volaris increased total passenger traffic by 11.0%, including an 8.8% rise in domestic passengers and an 18.6% increase in international traffic. Monex analysts said, "We believe Volaris' traffic performance during the sixth month of the year was positive because, despite adverse economic conditions and challenging migration policies, the company maintained favorable operating performance, reflecting the positive effect of the FIFA World Cup." 

Aeroméxico, meanwhile, reported a 9.0% decline in total passenger traffic, including a 13.0% decrease in domestic demand and a 1.4% decline internationally. "As we anticipated, demand in the domestic market moderated with the start of the FIFA World Cup, so we adjusted capacity in this segment in a timely manner. International demand, meanwhile, maintained the strength that has characterized the year," said Andrés Conesa, CEO of Aeroméxico.