IATA Sees Lunar New Year Flights 10.8% Above 2026 Average

Passenger air traffic during the 2026 Lunar New Year travel period is expected to be 10.8% higher than the average daily volumes recorded so far this year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The organization said the seasonal increase reflects stronger travel demand across Asia-Pacific markets during one of the region’s main peak travel periods. Airlines are preparing for increased passenger flows as travelers move across the region for holidays, family visits and tourism during the annual celebration.

The Lunar New Year is celebrated in several Asian countries, including China, Vietnam and South Korea. The event marks the beginning of a new year according to the lunar or lunisolar calendar used across much of East and Southeast Asia. In 2026, the holiday period began on Feb. 17, although the number of official holiday days varies by country depending on national regulations and cultural practices.

According to the association, the projected rise in passenger volumes is consistent with seasonal travel increases recorded in other global markets. During the most recent Christmas and New Year travel period in Western markets, passenger traffic rose 11% compared with typical daily volumes. IATA said the similar pattern confirms the Lunar New Year period as one of the most active travel seasons for airlines operating across Asia-Pacific.

On a year-over-year basis, passenger volumes during the 2026 Lunar New Year celebrations are expected to be 8.5% higher than during the same holiday period in 2025. The forecast reflects the continued recovery of international travel in Asia and sustained mobility among travelers in major regional markets. Airlines have been expanding capacity on key routes as travel demand across Asia-Pacific stabilizes following several years of disruptions to international mobility.

Outbound traffic from China is projected to grow 16.7% during the holiday period, one of the strongest increases among the markets participating in the travel cycle. The growth reflects increased travel activity among Chinese consumers, who continue to represent one of the largest groups of international travelers in the Asia-Pacific aviation system.

IATA said the longer holiday period in 2026 is also contributing to the increase in passenger volumes. “The longer nine-day holiday period this year, compared with the usual seven or eight days off, is also driving higher traffic volumes, encouraging more Chinese travelers to go abroad, particularly to Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia,” the association said in its analysis of travel demand.

Airlines across East and Southeast Asia are adjusting flight schedules and capacity levels to accommodate the expected surge in passengers. The Lunar New Year period traditionally generates higher passenger volumes on both domestic and international routes, particularly in markets where family reunions and tourism drive travel activity. Airports and airline operators typically allocate additional resources to manage higher traffic levels during the holiday.

Regional Traffic Patterns Shift Across Asia-Pacific

Traffic patterns across the region are evolving as geopolitical and diplomatic developments influence travel flows between certain markets. IATA noted that the composition of passenger traffic traveling to Japan changed significantly compared with the previous year’s celebrations.

Other markets are recording slower growth in international travel during the holiday period. Demand in the Philippines remains limited due to persistent geopolitical tensions and constraints in international connectivity. These conditions have moderated the expansion of passenger volumes compared with other markets in the Asia-Pacific region, where demand continues to grow more rapidly.

A similar trend is visible in South Korea, where the majority of Lunar New Year travel takes place domestically rather than internationally. Most holiday trips in the country are completed by road or rail instead of air travel. As a result, the aviation sector experiences a smaller increase in passenger volumes compared with other Asian markets during the celebration period.

Despite these variations, airlines continue to rely on seasonal travel events such as the Lunar New Year to support passenger traffic during the first quarter of the year. High travel demand during the holiday period often contributes significantly to airline revenues in Asia-Pacific markets, particularly on regional routes connecting major tourism destinations and population centers.

Jet Fuel Prices Add Pressure to Airline Costs

While passenger demand is rising, airlines across Asia-Pacific are also facing growing operational cost pressures linked to fuel markets. Jet fuel prices in Asia have increased following disruptions to oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption.

In the regional trading hub of Singapore, jet kerosene prices rose 72% to US$225.44 per barrel, reaching a record level. Market participants attribute the surge to concerns about supply disruptions affecting roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined product shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

The spot price of jet fuel has increased 140% since Feb. 27, the day before the United States and Israel launched an aerial bombing campaign against Iran. Rising prices have pushed refining margins for producing jet kerosene from Dubai crude above US$100 per barrel, signaling expectations of tighter fuel supply conditions in the coming weeks.

Industry participants also report early signs of operational stress among refiners in Asia. Some refining plants have reduced operating rates to preserve crude inventories, while Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited in India suspended fuel exports from its 300,000-barrel-per-day refinery, according to market sources familiar with the situation.

The rise in fuel costs comes as Asia-Pacific is projected to record the fastest aviation growth globally in 2026. IATA expects strong increases in both domestic and international travel, led by major aviation markets such as China, India and Vietnam.