ICAO Urges States to Uphold Chicago Convention

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) urged member states to uphold the principles of the 1944 Convention on International Civil Aviation amid widespread disruptions in Middle Eastern airspace. Without directly referencing recent events, the agency emphasized that “civil aviation must be preserved to promote global peace and prosperity, always ensuring safety and security as the fundamental priority.” The statement comes as multiple airspace restrictions continue to disrupt international traffic flows, creating operational and regulatory challenges for airlines, airports and air navigation service providers.

ICAO highlighted that member states are responsible for ensuring the safety of air transport operations, facilities and passengers. The Convention requires nations to cooperate whenever aviation safety is threatened. “The ICAO framework protects passengers and crews by requiring the closure of airspace when safety is at risk,” the agency said. It stressed that civil aviation must remain insulated from conflict-related risks through coordinated measures and adherence to internationally agreed protocols.

When conflict affects airspace, ICAO activates regional and interregional coordination mechanisms to assist member states in implementing contingency arrangements within their flight information regions (FIRs). The agency convenes affected states and industry stakeholders to exchange information, harmonize procedures and maintain the continuous, safe and orderly flow of air traffic. These forums aim to reduce operational uncertainty and facilitate efficient rerouting, ensuring airlines can maintain schedules while prioritizing safety.

ICAO referenced Resolution A42-4, adopted at its most recent assembly, which addresses civil aviation risks arising from conflict zones. Under this resolution, the assessment of safety risks in conflict areas remains the exclusive responsibility of member states, their air navigation service providers and airlines. “ICAO works continuously with member states and all relevant industry stakeholders to improve guidance on how to ensure the safety and security of civil aviation operations near and over conflict zones,” the organization said, underscoring its proactive approach to risk mitigation.

In parallel, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) extended until March 6 its advisory recommending airlines avoid the airspace of at least 11 Middle Eastern countries. The guidance applies at all flight levels and calls for continuous monitoring of developments. Operators are instructed to follow all available aeronautical publications and operational updates regarding the affected airspace. Countries listed in the advisory include Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

The EASA extension reflects ongoing risk assessments linked to regional instability and its potential impact on commercial aviation. Airlines operating long-haul routes between Europe and Asia have been adjusting flight paths to circumvent restricted zones, resulting in longer flight times and higher operational costs. 

Operational and Financial Challenges for Airlines

Airlines and tourism operators scrambled to mitigate disruptions after the escalation of US and Israeli strikes against Iran forced the closure or restriction of major Gulf aviation hubs, including Dubai, for a fourth consecutive day. Flightradar24 reported approximately 21,300 flight cancellations across seven airports, including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, leaving tens of thousands of passengers stranded. Paul Charles, CEO, luxury travel consultancy PC Agency, described the event as “the biggest shutdown we’ve seen certainly since the COVID pandemic,” noting that cargo disruptions could cost “billions of dollars.”

Governments stepped up evacuation and repatriation efforts as limited services resumed. The United Arab Emirates confirmed that 60 flights had departed through dedicated emergency air corridors, with more than 80 additional flights planned. The United States arranged military and charter flights and maintained contact with nearly 3,000 citizens in the region. Delta Air Lines paused New York–Tel Aviv flights through March 22 and issued travel waivers through March 31. Meanwhile, Emirates, flydubai and Etihad operated restricted services primarily aimed at repatriating stranded travelers. Surging demand for alternative routes pushed ticket prices higher on long-haul sectors, including Hong Kong–London, as passengers sought to bypass the Gulf region.

Market Implications and Investor Concerns

Global airline shares declined as oil prices surged approximately 30% this year, intensifying pressure on jet fuel costs, which are typically the second-largest operating expense for airlines after labor. In the United States, shares of Southwest Airlines and Alaska Air Group fell, while European carriers including Wizz Air, International Airlines Group (IAG), Lufthansa and Air France-KLM dropped between 5% and 8%.

Ryanair reported it was hedged at approximately US$67 per barrel for the next 12 months, limiting near-term exposure to rising fuel prices, while Qantas Airways noted “pretty good” fuel hedging, though it acknowledged the broader impact of higher oil prices on industry costs.