Mexico Aerospace Sector Joins USMCA Review Talks

Mexico’s aerospace industry has formally joined working groups convened by the Ministry of Economy (SE) ahead of the upcoming review of the USMCA. The sector is participating through the private advisory mechanism known as the Cuarto de Junto, which supports Mexico’s negotiating team. Industry leaders say the objective is to ensure that technical priorities and supply-chain considerations are incorporated into the country’s negotiating position. Early consultations between authorities and manufacturers have already taken place.

Luis Lizcano, executive president, Federación Mexicana de la Industria Aeroespacial (FEMIA), said the industry expects an extensive review process. “We anticipate a very thorough review, but in the end the USMCA will continue to be a driver of economic activity and growth for the aerospace sector,” he said. While companies assume the agreement will remain in force, uncertainty has already influenced investment and production decisions. According to Lizcano, working groups have focused on rules affecting trade flows, sourcing strategies and long-term contracts. 

That uncertainty has coincided with a moderation in the sector’s growth. Mexico’s aerospace exports reached approximately US$11 billion in 2025, according to FEMIA estimates, but first-half performance reflected slower expansion than in previous years. Lizcano noted that following the pandemic the sector grew between 13% and 16% annually. From January to June 2025, total sales rose 9% year on year, a deceleration he linked to trade tensions and pending policy adjustments.

Trade Integration and Export Performance

Despite short-term volatility, Mexico has consolidated its position within North America’s aerospace value chain. Exports increased from US$6.7 billion in 2021 to US$10.7 billion in 2024, representing growth of nearly 60% in three years. Mexico ranks 12th globally in aerospace manufacturing and is the fourth-largest exporter of aerospace goods. 

FEMIA projected exports of US$12 billion for 2025, although final figures have yet to be confirmed. Based on tariff classifications and statistics from Mexico’s Central Bank, shipments could exceed US$13.6 billion. Around 80% of Mexico’s aerospace exports are destined for the United States, reinforcing cross-border production integration. Canada, France and Germany follow as secondary destinations, though with significantly smaller shares.

Import flows reveal a similar level of interdependence. Aerospace imports rose from US$5.4 billion in 2021 to US$8.6 billion in 2024. The United States remains the dominant supplier, with shipments increasing from US$4.3 billion to US$6.3 billion over the same period. 

Tariffs, Investment and Supplier Development

Trade policy has added pressure to this integrated model. Since June, the United States has imposed tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on steel and aluminum imports from several countries, including Mexico, and announced additional duties on other products beginning Aug. 1. Measures promoted by former President Donald Trump have generated uncertainty across multiple manufacturing sectors. “Because of Donald Trump’s tariffs, uncertainty and disruption were generated, which explains the slowdown in the first half of the year,” Lizcano said.

The industry’s geographic footprint illustrates its national relevance. Aerospace companies operate in 20 of Mexico’s 32 states, with clusters concentrated in Sonora, Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, Baja California and Queretaro. Approximately 80% of parts manufactured domestically are exported to the United States, followed by 4.7% to Canada, 3.5% to France and 3.2% to Germany. 

At the same time, supplier development remains central to sustaining growth. Enrique Maldonado Cervantes, director of supplier development, FEMIA, said small and medium-sized enterprises must complete a structured, multi-phase entry process to integrate into the aerospace supply chain. “It is a process that takes time. Certification planning and engagement with major companies are the first steps,” he said during a recent industry webinar. Companies must adapt to low-volume, high-mix production models, provide precise cost structures and comply with strict aerospace quality standards.

Global manufacturers including Embraer, Bombardier and GE Aerospace are seeking local suppliers, creating opportunities for qualified Mexican firms. Mexico’s aerospace market was valued at US$11.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to exceed US$57 billion by 2034, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2%, according to industry data cited by GlobeNewswire. Exports surpassed US$9 billion in 2023, and annual foreign direct investment averaged US$500 million between 2019 and 2022.