Mexico Air Cargo Capacity Drops as Trade Risks Rise

Foreign cargo airlines operating in Mexico are reducing capacity and revising logistics strategies as uncertainty over the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) reshapes international trade flows. Data from Mexico’s Agencia Federal de Aviación Civil (AFAC) shows that regular international cargo handled by foreign carriers declined 7.3% in 2025 compared with 2024, with volumes falling a further 3% year over year during the first two months of 2026, signaling sustained pressure on cross-border freight activity.

Industry executives attribute the contraction to US tariff policies and broader global supply chain restructuring. Frank Nozinsky, Director General of Lufthansa Cargo Mexico, Lufthansa Cargo AG, noted: “Aviation is very volatile; it is the first sector to feel an economic crisis and the first affected by tariffs. We are operating in a more uncertain global environment.”

Regional data shows uneven impacts across airline groups: Asian carriers fell 10.9% in 2025, European airlines declined 8.5%, US carriers dropped 6.2%, and Central and South American operators decreased 5.3%. African airlines grew 2.7%, while Canadian carriers posted a surge exceeding 500%, though insufficient to offset broader industry losses.

Legal and logistics specialists say tariffs and trade realignment have raised transportation costs, prompting companies to redesign distribution models. Julio Zugasti, aviation specialist, Hogan Lovells Mexico, explained: “This redesign of supply chains, particularly in production-related areas, creates operational complexities and new cost pressures.”

Individual airline performance illustrates the disruption: Qatar Airways cut cargo activity in Mexico by roughly 80%, Cargolux fell 23%, and LATAM Chile operations declined 21%. Express logistics providers also contracted, with FedEx down 5% and UPS 12%. Long-haul routes experienced the largest drops, including Shanghai–Felipe Ángeles International Airport down 23.4%, Hong Kong–Guadalajara –12.6%, and Toluca–Memphis –13.6%.

Market observers expect continued caution through 2026. Eva Muñoz Pineda, president, Asociación Mexicana de Agentes de Carga (Amacarga), said importers are postponing shipping decisions pending clarity on trade negotiations: “We see a negative scenario this year due to a complicated global economic environment. Importers are waiting, and the market contracts.”

Currency dynamics are adding pressure. A stronger peso versus the US dollar has raised export costs, affecting air-freighted goods such as electronics, high-tech products, perishables, and automotive components, forcing exporters to reassess pricing and shipment timing.

Domestic Cargo Trends and Infrastructure Impacts

While domestic cargo showed partial recovery in early 2026, AFAC reported total air freight of 1,232,808.4 metric tons in 2025 down 2.4% from 2024. Operational restructuring after relocating dedicated cargo flights from Mexico City International Airport to Felipe Ángeles International Airport reshaped traffic patterns: Felipe Ángeles handled 406,192.7 tons in 2025 (–9.2%), while Mexico City increased 5.2% to 252,557.7 tons as carriers redistributed shipments to maintain connectivity.

Security challenges continue influencing routing decisions. Pablo Casas Lías, director, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Jurídico-Aeronáuticas (INIJA), said: “High rates of assault on trucks transporting air cargo remain a concern,” prompting some operators to shift shipments to airports in Queretaro, Guadalajara, and Monterrey.

Global trends reinforce a cautious outlook. The International Air Transport Association reported North American carriers recorded the weakest global performance in 2025, with demand down 1.3% and capacity contracting 1.1%. December showed further declines: demand fell 2.2% and available capacity dropped 2.6%.