Mexico Air Cargo Dips 2.4% in 2025 Amid Trade Risks

Mexico ended 2025 with weaker air cargo volumes, as trade uncertainty with the United States, softer economic growth and persistent security concerns along key logistics routes weighed on freight activity, according to official figures and industry analysts.

Data from Mexico’s Agencia Federal de Aviación Civil (AFAC) show total air cargo reached 1,232,808.4 metric tons in 2025, down 2.4% from 1,263,585.6 tons in 2024. The decline contrasts with continued expansion in passenger traffic, highlighting a disconnect between tourism demand and trade-related logistics.

Analysts point to mounting uncertainty ahead of the scheduled 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) as a primary factor behind more cautious shipping decisions.

Brian Rodríguez Ontiveros, aviation financial analyst, Grupo Financiero Monex, said tariff-related risks have contributed to exchange-rate volatility and corporate hesitation. “Companies are delaying logistics commitments until there is greater clarity on trade policy,” he noted, adding that weaker domestic demand and inflation pressures have also dampened freight volumes.

Alik García, deputy director of equity analysis, Valmex Casa de Bolsa, said businesses are closely monitoring potential adjustments to USMCA provisions covering energy, labor, water resources and regional value content in sectors such as automotive. “As negotiations evolve, certainty could gradually return, supporting investment and cargo flows,” he said.

Aeropuerto Internacional Felipe Ángeles (AIFA), which now concentrates most dedicated cargo operations previously handled at Aeropuerto Internacional de la Ciudad de México (AICM), saw volumes decline 9.2% year over year to 406,192.7 tons. Analysts cited operational adjustments and security challenges affecting road access.

In contrast, AICM recorded a 5.2% increase, handling 252,557.7 tons. The uptick suggests some cargo operators have redistributed flows amid connectivity constraints and security concerns around AIFA.

Pablo Casas Lías, director, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Jurídico-Aeronáuticas (INIJA), said cargo theft and limited highway connectivity continue to undermine confidence. “High rates of assault on trucks transporting air cargo remain a concern,” he said, noting that some operators have diverted shipments to airports in Queretaro, Guadalajara and Monterrey.

He also referenced US regulatory actions affecting certain AIFA cargo routes, which prompted adjustments in carrier operations.

2026: Stabilization, Not Acceleration

Industry observers expect a gradual recovery in 2026, contingent on improved macroeconomic visibility and trade-policy clarity. However, they emphasize that infrastructure and security improvements will be essential to restoring stronger growth at emerging hubs.

Globally, air cargo is projected to expand approximately 2.4% in 2026, below 2025’s 3.1% growth rate, according to forecasts from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and industry analysts. Demand is expected to be supported by resilient US consumption, moderating inflation and potential interest-rate cuts, with global GDP projected near 3.2%.