Mexico Air Cargo Rises 7.3% as Sector Stabilizes

Air cargo movement in Mexico increased 7.3% year over year in the first two months of 2026, reaching 191,249.2 metric tons, according to data from the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC). The growth is partly attributed to easing tariff pressures, which have supported the release of previously delayed shipments following disruptions tied to international trade policies. The figures suggest early signs of stabilization in a sector affected by external demand volatility and regulatory uncertainty.

Domestic cargo volumes declined during the same period, highlighting uneven recovery dynamics. Between January and February, domestic cargo reached 56,350.2 metric tons, a 3.6% decrease year over year. In contrast, international cargo rose to 134,898.9 metric tons, marking a 12.7% increase. This divergence indicates that cross-border demand is driving overall growth, while domestic logistics activity remains relatively constrained.

Rogelio Rodríguez, an aviation sector specialist, said cargo performance in 2025 was affected by tariff measures, particularly those implemented by the United States. “Air cargo last year was impacted by US tariff policy, as well as duties on goods from China and countries without trade agreements with Mexico,” he said. These measures disrupted trade flows and contributed to delays across supply chains.

Rodríguez added that the rebound in early 2026 reflects improving trade conditions. “The growth observed in the first months of this year is mainly due to reduced tariff pressure,” he said. He noted that previously postponed shipments are now entering circulation. “Merchandise that was not transported due to this situation is beginning to recover,” he said, adding that air cargo is largely composed of industrial parts and intermediate goods.

Airport Performance Reflects Shifting Logistics Patterns

Airport-level data shows uneven performance across Mexico’s cargo network. Guadalajara International Airport recorded the highest growth, handling 30,407.0 metric tons, a 19.2% increase. Rodríguez attributed this to strong connectivity with national distribution corridors. “Guadalajara is experiencing growth supported by its links with distribution points across the country,” he said.

The Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) also reported growth, moving 63,845.2 metric tons, up 17.4% year over year. The airport continues to expand its role as a cargo hub, following the redistribution of operations from other terminals. Increased utilization reflects capacity reallocation and the development of new cargo routes.

Despite this early recovery, the sector’s 2025 performance underscores the impact of macroeconomic and operational headwinds. Total cargo volume reached 1,232,808.4 metric tons, a 2.4% decline from 2024 levels.

Analysts attribute the decline to uncertainty surrounding the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and broader economic conditions. Brian Rodríguez Ontiveros, financial analyst specializing in aviation, Grupo Financiero Monex, said tariff risks contributed to exchange-rate volatility and cautious corporate decision-making. 

Trade Uncertainty and Security Remain Key Risks

Airport performance in 2025 also reflected structural and security-related challenges. AIFA recorded a 9.2% decline in annual cargo volumes, partly linked to security concerns on surrounding highways. In contrast, Mexico City International Airport posted a 5.2% increase, suggesting a redistribution of cargo flows toward more established infrastructure.

Pablo Casas Lías, director, National Institute of Aeronautical Legal Research (INIJA), said cargo theft and limited connectivity continue to affect operations. “High rates of assaults on trucks transporting air cargo remain a concern,” he said. Some operators have redirected shipments to alternative hubs such as Queretaro, Guadalajara, and Monterrey to mitigate road security risks.

Industry expectations for 2026 point to stabilization rather than accelerated growth. Recovery will depend on improved macroeconomic visibility, greater trade policy clarity, and progress in infrastructure and security conditions. According to the International Air Transport Association, global air cargo demand is projected to grow 2.4% in 2026, supported by consumption trends and easing inflation, though at a slower pace than in the previous year.