Mexico Airline Passengers Fall 0.8% YTD Amid Jet Fuel Price Hike

Passenger traffic across commercial airlines operating in Mexico fell 0.8% during the first seven months of 2026, totaling 71,627,584 travelers compared to the same period in 2025, according to data released by the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC).

The contraction reflects a challenging first half of the year driven by surging jet fuel costs and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which drove up ticket prices and weakened demand for business and leisure travel. The slump persisted despite significant expectations surrounding the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which hosted its opening matches in Mexico City during June.

The seven-month decline was primarily triggered by a 5.2% contraction in international carrier traffic, offsetting a modest 0.8% expansion in the domestic market. However, July data provided temporary relief for the industry. Total passenger volume in July reached 11,067,076—a 0.7% year-over-year increase—reversing a 2.9% drop recorded in June when total market traffic dipped to 9,507,371 passengers.

During June, international carriers posted a 10.5% drop in passenger volume to 2,881,060. Mexican airlines saw domestic passenger numbers drop 1.4% to 5,073,590 during the same month, though their international operations rose 8% to 1,552,721 passengers.

By July, domestic airlines showed stronger recovery, moving 6,052,752 passengers on domestic routes (a 5% annual increase) and 1,878,021 on international routes (an 8.3% increase). International operators continued to lag in July, recording a 10.2% drop to 3,136,303 passengers.

Fuel Price Pressures and Airline Performance

Rising operational expenses, particularly fuel costs, represented the chief headwind for carriers through the second quarter. Aeroméxico reported that its fuel cost per gallon surged 79.6% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, rising from US$2.30 to US$4.20 per gallon.

"Aeroméxico obtained solid results in the second quarter, despite the strong pressure generated by the increase in fuel prices and changes in demand during June associated with the World Cup. Our results were in line with the guidance we shared for the quarter, even as we faced an additional impact from fuel prices of approximately US$30 million," said Andrés Conesa, chief executive officer, Aeroméxico.

Aeroméxico transported 13,734,230 passengers between January and July, marking a 3% decline from the previous year. The carrier noted strong forward bookings, maintaining a positive outlook for the remainder of the year.

Varis maintained its position as the market leader, carrying 17,494,437 passengers in the first seven months of the year—an 8.4% increase year-over-year. The airline attributed its growth to the strategic redeployment of its 130-aircraft fleet away from congested hubs like Mexico City International Airport toward high-demand regional markets, including new routes out of Puebla. In July alone, Volaris posted a 21.5% spike in passenger volume.

"We acted decisively, driving a solid performance across our network and cash flow generation, despite operating in one of the most challenging fuel environments in recent years. Not only did we achieve a record unit revenue for a second quarter through fare increases and disciplined actions in pricing, network, capacity, and operations, but we also benefited from sustained domestic demand and strong international demand," said Enrique Beltranena, chief executive officer, Volaris.

Following July's high-demand summer period, Volaris announced plans to moderate capacity growth heading into the autumn to align seat supply with shifting demand patterns.

Viva ranked second in overall passenger volume from January to July, transporting 15,874,202 passengers, representing a 1.2% year-over-year decline. Viva and Volaris are currently in the process of merging.