Mexico Must Expand Airports as Traffic May Double: OMA

Mexico must prioritize strengthening its existing airport infrastructure to meet rising passenger demand, as traffic is projected to more than double by 2044, according to industry forecasts and operators. Ricardo Dueñas Espriú, CEO, Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte (OMA), said passenger traffic is expected to increase from 103.5 million in 2025 to 215.6 million by 2044, based on projections from Airbus. He told A21 that the priority should be expanding current facilities rather than building new terminals, given existing capacity constraints.

Dueñas Espriú said demand growth requires immediate action to avoid system saturation. “If we do not act, demand will catch up with us, and the last thing we want is for demand to outpace infrastructure,” he said. He added that projects such as the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) and Tulum International Airport have helped address demand, but existing infrastructure requires reinforcement to support long-term growth across the network.

According to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, passenger traffic in Mexico is expected to grow by 108% over the next two decades. Travel frequency is projected to increase from 0.6 to 1.2 trips per capita, indicating structural demand expansion. Dueñas Espriú said recent trends support this outlook. “Excluding the pandemic, traffic has grown three to four times faster than GDP,” he said.

He attributed growth to low air travel penetration and future demand potential compared with countries of similar economic size. “If you compare trips per capita in Mexico with countries with similar GDP, there is room to reach higher levels,” he said. Additional factors include demographic trends and proximity to the United States, which supports cross-border connectivity and sustained passenger demand.

OMA operates 13 airports and is implementing long-term investment plans across its portfolio. “We build for the next 15 to 20 years. We need to anticipate investment needs, and these are significant investments,” Dueñas Espriú said. Airports such as Monterrey, Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, Culiacan and Chihuahua have recorded sustained growth and are undergoing expansion projects to increase capacity and improve service levels.

Investment, Regulation and Sector Performance

Infrastructure planning must align with national development priorities and demand distribution. “We must define what infrastructure we want, where development hubs are located and ensure orderly growth,” Dueñas Espriú said. He noted that expanding existing airports will be the primary strategy, while new facilities may be considered where demand is not currently covered by available capacity.

Recent data shows increasing pressure on key airports across operators. Guadalajara, managed by Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), has recorded sustained growth, reinforcing the need for coordinated investment. Dueñas Espriú said capacity expansion must be proactive, given the time required to develop infrastructure and the pace of demand growth.

At the policy level, Carlos Manuel Merino Campos, head, Aeropuertos y Servicios Auxiliares (ASA), said at least seven proposals have been submitted for airport construction or expansion. These include projects in San Miguel de Allende, Ensenada and Xpujil, as well as two in Quintana Roo and two in Jalisco. He said approvals depend on technical and financial feasibility studies.

OMA reported total revenue of MX$15.96 billion (US$939 million) in 2025, a 5.9% increase from the previous year, supported by aeronautical and non-aeronautical segments. Combined revenue from these segments rose 11.8% to MX$13.65 billion (US$803 million). Construction revenue declined 19.1% to MX$2.31 billion (US$136 million), reflecting project timing across the concession portfolio. The company said this does not affect its medium-term investment strategy.

Outlook Shaped by Costs, Global Events

OMA said the FIFA World Cup 2026 could support passenger traffic growth, helping offset an expected moderation driven by higher costs. The company anticipates slower passenger growth in 2026 due to increases in wages, transport services and security expenses. Management said these pressures are expected to be temporary and manageable without a significant impact on margins.

During its earnings call, the company projected low- to mid-single-digit passenger growth for 2026, below current-year levels. Traffic is expected to increase during the months of the World Cup, particularly in host cities such as Monterrey. Outside that period, demand is expected to reflect cost pressures and broader economic conditions affecting travel.

Regulatory factors will also influence performance. Maximum airport tariffs are subject to annual efficiency adjustments defined by the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation, which may limit revenue growth. OMA said it cannot predict how these rules will be applied in the next regulatory period beginning in 2026, though it expects tariff increases to remain within a low single-digit range.

OMA confirmed that investment levels for the 2026–2030 period will be similar to the previous cycle, when more than MX$11 billion (US$646 million) was allocated. Approximately half of planned investments will be directed to Monterrey, the largest airport in its network. 

The company also reported rising cost pressures, with airport service expenses increasing 144% year over year, driven in part by a 22.2% rise in basic services.