North America Air Travel Growth Lags at 0.6% in 1Q26: OAG

North America’s international aviation market is expected to grow just 0.6%  year on year in 1Q26, the lowest projected increase among major global regions, according to analysis by OAG. The forecast was highlighted during a recent webinar, where John Grant, OAG’s chief analyst, described the limited growth as “notable” compared with other regions such as Southeast Asia (+8.7%), the Middle East (+8.4%) and Africa (+8.3%).

“Looking at North America, capacity growth is just 0.6%, and there are increasing reports of weak international traffic into the United States this summer for multiple reasons,” Grant said. He added that while a weaker US dollar could make the country a more attractive travel destination, other factors continue to weigh on demand.

Grant also noted that the upcoming FIFA World Cup and ongoing domestic challenges, including migration policy issues, could influence international travel patterns. “The United States has the World Cup coming up and is addressing some migration issues, but we would still expect to see the US international market in a stronger position,” he said.

Deirdre Fulton, partner, MIDAS Aviation and a webinar participant, questioned the extent to which domestic political unrest has affected demand. “There is still a strong appeal for US destinations, but clearly a segment of different national markets will not travel because of current events,” she said. Tightening US visa policies, social and migration crises, and recent controversial comments toward other nations, including Canada, have contributed to hesitation among international travelers.

Tourism from Canada is particularly affected. Grant said airline capacity between the United States and Canada is expected to fall 7% in 1Q26. “Several Canadian carriers have reduced seats to US destinations,” he said. In addition, many Canadian snowbird travelers — retirees who traditionally spend winters in southern US states — are shifting their trips to Mexico and the Caribbean. “Travelers, especially from the US West Coast, are moving toward Mexican destinations, particularly Cancun, which has benefited from large-scale airline operations,” Grant noted. He added that a key question will be how many Canadians realize that snowbird trips to Mexico or the Caribbean are comparably priced to Florida or Arizona.

Europe presents a more mixed outlook. Domestic markets in major European countries are generally contracting in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, with exceptions including France, Sweden and Finland. Spain is expected to see a 3.7% decline in domestic capacity, largely due to cuts by low-cost carriers. In Italy, Ryanair has offset reductions by legacy carriers such as ITA Airways, but not enough to prevent an overall decline, while the UK market has been affected by the exit of regional operators including Eastern Airways and Blue Islands.

International traffic in Europe, however, is more positive. Poland is projected to post a 20.8% year-on-year increase in international capacity, followed by Ireland at 14.5%, Italy at 8%, Belgium at 5.5% and Spain at 5%. Grant emphasized that while international growth in North America remains subdued, other regions continue to expand, underscoring shifting patterns in global aviation demand.

The US is expected to lose US$12.5 billion in travel revenue by the end of 2025, according to an analysis by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) in partnership with Oxford Economics. The decline is primarily due to a sharp reduction in international visitor spending, making the US the only country among 184 global economies studied to record a tourism revenue loss this year.