Home > Aerospace > View from the Top

Political, Economic Diversity Are Both Drivers, Hurdles

Melvin Cintron - International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Regional Director

STORY INLINE POST

Fri, 12/01/2017 - 10:27

share it

Q: What is spurring aviation growth in Mexico and Latin America and what hurdles stand in the way?
A: ICAO’s North American, Central American and Caribbean (NACC) regional office forecast in 2016 that political and economic diversity is likely to both drive and challenge the industry’s growth. Different countries and autonomous territories mean that the NACC office has to unite the 40 countries it represents, from small developing islands to the world’s most advanced and developed states. The continent works in four main languages, as well as several local dialects. To overcome the region’s differences, ICAO oversees quality in air navigation arrangements, terminal areas, area control centers and air navigation services.
Every day, 9.8 million passengers take 104,000 flights around the world, while goods worth US$18.6 billion are carried globally in air cargo. This volume of activity is projected to double over the next 20 years, and the increasing demand for flights has pushed countries to their limits with many now struggling to supply seats and cargo space. We expect globalization and worldwide purchasing power to lead to higher demand for skilled aviation personnel and to exacerbate infrastructure deficiencies. Travelers echo these concerns, but a lack of resources within ICAO’s member states and the regional office may complicate advances.
To begin combatting personnel deficits, ICAO offers courses in several training areas, delivered globally but primarily in Canada, the US, Mexico and Colombia here in the NACC region. These include educational initiatives to promote safety and sustainability in the region, such as the Safety Management Training Program, Universal Safety Oversight Audit Program, as well as three government safety inspector courses.
Q: What is the aviation sector’s greatest contribution to economic development in the region?
A: Aviation and air transport in general supported 62.7 million jobs worldwide in 2015, of which 36.6 million were catalyzed by tourism, 9.9 million were direct jobs and 11.2 million were indirect. Aviation was responsible for 3.5 percent of 2015’s global GDP, an economic impact amounting to US$2.7 trillion.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, air transport supported 5.2 million jobs and created US$167 billion in GDP. In 2015, 17 narrow body and 80 wide body aircraft were delivered to airlines in Central and South America, while in North America, 46 narrow body and 296 wide body aircraft were delivered.
Freight is mainly transported globally by ships and over land, but for products with a short shelf-life, air cargo is the only option and these tend to be high-value shipments. We expect air freight from Mexico to grow as well as passenger demand.
Q: To what extent is unifying regulation, services and processes across such a diverse region feasible and how can ICAO achieve this?
A: An important concern for ICAO is whether countries’ standards implementation can keep pace with aviation’s growth. ICAO’s Aviation System block upgrades, defined in tandem with the global community, help in this regard, but it’s also important to note that we aim for harmonization rather than homogenization to take account of the specific circumstances in each country.
The harmonization of services, airspace and procedures is one of our main goals and a key component of seamless air traffic management. In the simplest of terms, it lets our network be truly global in scope. We are continuously harmonizing aviation rules and regulations in the region, concentrating on enhancing collaboration between countries and creating regional mechanisms that are effective in smaller areas. We would like to see an exchange of inspectors between countries, as needed, and timely regulation updates to be compliant with ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices (SARP).
We launched an initiative targeting Boeing and Airbus. We hope to secure both so that European and American manufacturers are represented and able to contribute to a harmonized regional system. If we can recognize equivalency of the FAR-145 for example, across several regions, an aircraft originating in one country could undergo maintenance in several destinations.
Q: Which programs are being developed and implemented by the organization to improve safety before, during and after flights?
A: Our No Country Left Behind strategy worked well in its initial two years in Mexico. I am personally responsible for fostering political will and assisting countries through growing pains via teleconferences with authorities and technical teams. ICAO aims to fix what is broken in the system rather than fixing an end-product created by a broken system. Having chosen Mexico as a strong-enough candidate to be the pilot country, we have since confirmed all States’ and territories’ commitments to the initiative, as well as receiving their declarations of intent.
Statistics measuring the progress of the No Country Left Behind program are promising. In 2015, 33 percent of the member countries were reaching our target of 80 percent effective compliance and by 2016 this had moved up to 48 percent. We hope to close 2017 with 62 percent of States now at this level and 90 percent by the end of 2018.
Q: What are the reasons behind ICAO’s new regulations on aircraft CO2 emissions?
A: Our new recommended controls on CO2 are another measure of our Plan of Action on International Aviation and Climate Change, as part of a set of measures to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions cause by air transport. The 37th assembly requested ICAO to develop a worldwide aircraft emissions standard in 2010 and this was finalized in 2012. The system takes different aircraft categories into consideration, irrespective of purpose or capability. The reasons behind our recommended airplane CO2 emissions standard certification is to encourage more fuel-efficient technologies be integrated into aircraft designs. The standard will apply to subsonic jet and turboprop airplanes that are new type designs from 2020, as well as to designs that are in-production in 2023 and need to undergo a change.
The impacts on pollution we hope to spark off will lead up to 2028. This will be the production cut-off when airplanes that do not meet the standard can no longer be manufactured or must be modified. The proposed global standard is especially stringent for larger aircraft with a maximum take-off mass of more than 60 tons. This is the type of aircraft we expect to be most affected.
Q: What does ICAO hope to achieve in 2017 on top of stricter CO2 emissions controls?
A: Three states in the NACC region registered up to 60 percent effective implementation of our regulations in 2016. We hope to increase this to above 80 percent by the end of this year.
My interests with respect to eradicating all safety concerns are aspirational, but I expect all states to comply as best  as they can. Before the end of 2017, ICAO will create a regional accident and investigation group in the Caribbean and formalize the existing central American investigation group. Tremendous differences can be narrowed down if we encourage countries that are similar to sign a memorandum of understanding. This is easier and more effective than simply laying down blanket regulations across countries with distinct languages and cultures, as well as varying government budgets for safety measures.
Q: What are your projections for aerospace in the NACC region?
A: Based on ICAO’s long-term traffic forecast for passenger and cargo, we expect global passenger traffic to grow 4.6 percent annually until 2032. This tendency is also applicable to regions like Latin America and Mexico in the short term. Freight traffic is expected to grow 4.4 percent around the world in this same period but Latin America, the Caribbean and North America may grow slightly more slowly than this at 3 percent.
With all the countries uniting, we can overcome the weaknesses of each region. Aviation is a very dynamic sector and as it grows, governments need to sustainably develop safety practices to maintain or bolster our region’s low accident rate.

 

You May Like

Most popular

Newsletter