US Measures Hits Air Travel to Mexico

The second term of Donald Trump as US president has contributed to a downturn in Mexico’s inbound air travel market, with passenger traffic from the United States declining 0.2% in the first nine months of 2025, equivalent to 98,000 fewer travelers, according to data from the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC). This contraction coincides with new US Department of Transportation (DOT) measures revoking 13 routes operated by Mexican airlines, a decision that industry leaders and officials warn could further strain cross-border connectivity and reduce Mexico’s tourist inflow by more than 200,000 passengers during the upcoming winter season.

“We are seeing weak demand, as I said, in the domestic market due to Pratt & Whitney and some other factors. In the case of the United States, figures for the quarter show a 0.2% decrease, which is small but affects our largest market,” Adolfo Castro, CEO, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR), said in a conference call. Castro added that airports expect a potential recovery during the winter months depending on seasonal travel from northern regions.

Raúl Revuelta, CEO, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), linked the decline to growing concerns about immigration controls and traveler perception under the current US administration. “We are seeing a slowdown in direct routes from some of our airports to the United States, such as Guanajuato–Chicago, Guadalajara–Sacramento, or Los Angeles. It also affects routes that pass through Tijuana and the Cross Border Xpress (CBX) to the US,” he said.

Between January and September, the number of flights between Mexico and the US increased 3.8%, yet seat occupancy rates dropped by three percentage points compared to last year. Cancun reported the largest loss in passengers from US cities, with traffic from Chicago down 15% and from Dallas down 6% in the same period.

The downward trend is not solely attributed to migration policies. Volaris, Mexico’s largest carrier in the US-Mexico market , noted that economic uncertainty has deterred travelers. “People were worried about traveling abroad or even leaving the United States. Public discourse has evolved from a general concern about all immigrants to a focus on individual and legal violations of US immigration policies,” said Holger Blankenstein, Executive Vice President, Volaris.