What Will Happen to Mexican Tourism in 2021?

The Ministry of Tourism (SECTUR) just released its forecast for 2021 regarding tourism and flying rates. The ministry presented an optimistic, conservative and pessimistic scenario taking into consideration what has happened and affected the industry this year.

Starting with the optimistic forecast for the tourism and aerospace sector, according to SECTUR, Mexico could reach 42.7 million international arrivals, which would represent a 65 percent increase against what was registered in 2020. Still, this would continue to be lower than the numbers of 2019 of 44.7 million tourists. The conservative forecast shows that Mexico could register 34.5 million international arrivals, representing a 33 percent increase compared to 2020 but a 23 percent decrease against 2019. Lastly, the pessimistic scenario shows 26.3 million international arrivals, representing merely a 1.6 percent increase against 2020, reported A21.

In a previous MBN article, it was mentioned that even though the Mexican aviation industry had a free fall in demand at the beginning of the year, results have shown that the industry has been recovering little by little. This is relevant for the country's overall economy, as tourism represented 8.7 percent of the GDP in 2019, according to SECTUR. 

Miguel Torruco Marqués, Minister of Tourism, mentioned that in the optimistic scenario, tourists will spend US$17.4 billion in 2021. In the conservative scenario, they will be spending US$15.6 billion and in the pessimistic case only US$13.1 billion.

In terms of 2020 end-of-the-year expectations, SECTUR says Mexico will close the year with 25.9 million tourists and that the biggest loss will be in arrivals from the US with a 50.7 percent decrease and Canada with a 56.9 percent decrease, according to data from Dec. 28. Today, El Economista released the current numbers according to the Migration Policy Unit of the Ministry of the Interior. Monthly arrivals of foreign tourists to Mexico show a deceleration in the last months, probably related to the recent discoveries of new strains of COVID-19 and the restrictions that came along.

Between January and November 2020, almost 7 million tourists came to Mexico, representing a decrease of 59.4 percent against last year. The main routes being operated during this time were Dallas-Fort Worth-Cancun, Chicago-Cancun, Los Angeles-Guadalajara and Miami-Mexico City. According to SECTUR and the WTO, Mexico will be the third-most visited country of the year, after Italy and France, as mentioned in an article by El Economista.