Avocado Prices Fall in Mexico as Exports Hit Record Highs

Mexican avocado prices in Mexico City have fallen nearly 27% over the past year due to increased domestic supply, while exports to the United States are reaching record levels ahead of the Super Bowl. The price of avocados in supermarkets and markets across Mexico City currently averages MX$55/kg, a significantly lower figure compared to the MX$75/kg recorded in January 2025, according to data from the Agrifood Information Service of the Ministry of Agriculture (SADER). This decline represents a price reduction of 26.7%.

The main reason behind the drop in prices is supply. During the final months of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, Mexico recorded greater availability of avocados in the domestic market, driven by favorable weather conditions and a larger harvest across several producing regions. When supply is abundant, prices tend to adjust downward, particularly in high-consumption markets such as the country’s capital.

This situation has been reinforced by a better balance between exports and the domestic market. High production levels allowed a larger share of avocados to remain within the national market, increasing competition among suppliers and putting downward pressure on prices at wholesale markets, public markets, and retail chains.

Regarding the international market, the Association of Avocado Producers and Exporting Packers of Mexico (APEAM) announced the start of a historic shipping season ahead of the Super Bowl, with a projected 127,000t of Mexican avocados destined for the US market during the four weeks leading up to the event. This would represent an 11% increase compared to the previous year and set a new historical record.

This achievement is the result of coordinated efforts by producers and packers in Michoacan and Jalisco, the leading avocado-producing states in Mexico. APEAM estimates that of the total volume scheduled for shipment, 88% will originate from Michoacán and 12% from Jalisco. In Michoacan, the municipalities with the largest contributions will be Tancitaro, Uruapan, Salvador Escalante, Ario de Rosales, and Tacambaro; while in Jalisco, the main contributors include Zapotlan el Grande, Concepcion de Buenos Aires, San Gabriel, and Zapotiltic.

“This record projection is not just about volume, but about certainty in quality, size availability, promotional supply, and promotional programs designed to support our partners year-round, especially during peak demand moments like the Big Game,” said Álvaro Luque, President, Avocados From Mexico.

During the first half of the year, demand for Mexican avocados strengthens with the Super Bowl season, which has become the single largest avocado consumption event in the United States. This is complemented by other key dates such as Cinco de Mayo and the summer season, which continue to drive consumption. This cycle of celebrations is expected to provide some relief to the Mexican avocado sector, which faced challenges in the US market during 2025.

In the 2H25, Mexican avocados faced intense competition in the US market, their largest buyer. Manuel Cerda, President, Association of Avocado Producers and Exporters of the State of Mexico (Apeamex), explained that this was due to an oversupply of avocados within the United States, forcing importers to sell 10kg boxes for as little as US$14.

“There is a large volume of avocados coming from Peru, Colombia, and California, all shipping significant quantities due to overproduction in those regions,” he said in an interview with Milenio. In addition, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on the South American countries further reduced their profitability, prompting them to sell at very low prices, even though this results in minimal margins.

Cerda also noted that avocado size is a critical factor in the US market. He explained that several major markets are saturated, particularly with size-48 fruit, which is highly demanded by supermarkets. By contrast, Mexican avocados tend to be smaller in size. The businessman emphasized that exporting to alternative destinations is not feasible due to shelf-life limitations.

On a more positive note, Cerda pointed out that Mexico has a structural export advantage compared to its South American competitors. “Quality is our strength, but excess supply does pose a challenge. We are confident that Mexican avocados will maintain their position in the market thanks to their shelf life and compliance with standards,” he stated.

Sustainable Avocado

In terms of sustainability, APEAM continues to implement ongoing actions focused on responsible exports. These include the launch of a reforestation initiative with 650,000 plants for Michoacan and Jalisco, as well as the strengthening of phytosanitary, food safety, and traceability processes.

Regarding efforts to curb illegal logging linked to avocado cultivation, more than 1,000 environmental damage complaints were filed in Michoacan in 2025 across producing regions. Alejandro Méndez, Head of the state Ministry of the Environment, highlighted that Michoacan operates the Guardian Forestal system, which monitors in real time more than 180,000ha planted with avocados, particularly around 58,000 orchards that export and almost entirely comply with environmental regulations.

Michoacan Governor Alfredo Ramírez noted that this technology allows avocado packers and US supermarket chains such as Costco and Target to verify that avocado orchards adhere to good environmental practices. “The Secretary of the Environment and Natural Resources, Alicia Bárcena, committed to promoting a mandatory anti-deforestation certification as part of the negotiations for USMCA,” he said.

Additionally, at the end of 2025, the federal government launched the Labor Certification for Agro-Exports (VELAGRO), with avocados becoming the first fresh export product to obtain this certification. The program focuses on the avocado production chain, from planting and crop management to harvesting, packing, and export, ensuring decent working conditions and compliance with phytosanitary standards.

The goal of this initiative is to ensure that avocados, in addition to being recognized internationally for their quality and flavor, are also recognized for their social responsibility throughout the entire production chain.