El Niño Puts Mexico’s Agricultural Production at Risk

El Niño is strengthening and could disrupt Mexico’s agricultural production through regional changes in rainfall and temperature, increasing drought, water stress, crop losses and livestock feed requirements. The risk is significant for agriculture, livestock, food processing, and agri-food trade, particularly given Mexico’s reliance on rainfed crops and exposure of key production regions to drought. Early adaptation, localized climate information, and improved water management are becoming increasingly important for business resilience and food security.

The El Niño climate phenomenon could affect agricultural production and increase various costs across economic activity due to changes in rainfall and temperatures that may affect the agrifood sector in Mexico. 

El Niño is a climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that occurs when unusually warm waters accumulate in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. On Aug. 13, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reported that El Niño is strengthening and that there is a more than 90% probability that it will reach a very strong intensity during the fall and winter of the 2026-2027 Northern Hemisphere season.

Specialists highlight that the phenomenon’s economic impact could materialize through crop losses, infrastructure damage, and increased pressure on activities that depend on water and weather conditions. 

Impacts on the Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector is expected to be among the most affected. However, El Niño’s impacts in Mexico tend to vary by region. In northern states, precipitation tends to increase slightly, which favors agricultural activity and can improve crop yields. By contrast, central and southern states tend to face drier conditions, creating risks for regions where several of the country’s main agricultural export products are concentrated, including coffee, sugarcane, corn, and avocados.

During the seminar El Niño 2026: The Link to the Global Climate Emergency, What to Expect and How to Prepare, experts noted that around 80% of agricultural production is located in municipalities experiencing some degree of drought. In addition, around 75% of crops in Mexico are rainfed, further increasing the sector’s vulnerability to these phenomena.

According to the official dashboard of the General Directorate of the Agro-Food and Fisheries Information Service (DGSIAP), during the second half of June 2026, 5% of the value of Mexico’s agricultural production was under drought conditions, affecting 62 municipalities. Sonora accounted for 35.9% of its state agricultural production value under drought conditions, while Chihuahua accounted for 19.6%. White corn’s exposure had declined to 1.53%, while the indicator for wheat stood at 0% in that reporting period.

Crop-Specific Risks

Analysts argue that discussing El Niño in terms of rainfall or drought alone is insufficient for making production decisions, as each supply chain requires localized weather and agronomic information. For corn, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) estimates that Mexico will produce 20.6Mt of white corn during the October 2025-September 2026 crop cycle, compared with consumption of 19.3Mt, primarily for human consumption. For yellow corn, import dependence is mainly linked to livestock feed and industrial uses. Livestock consumption reached 22.5Mt in 2025/26, equivalent to 81.5% of demand for this variety.

During the 1H26, Mexico imported 11.7Mt of yellow corn, just 1.01% more than a year earlier, valued at US$2.5 million. White corn purchases, meanwhile, fell 15.89% to 493,00t. In this context, domestic corn production for human consumption remains stable. However, a significant disruption to Mexico’s harvest could affect trade flows with the United States and increase feed costs across livestock supply chains.

Wheat presents a different risk geography. Production is heavily concentrated in northern and northwestern regions. Official data show that immediate exposure to drought declined considerably during 2026: as of the end of February, only 2.97% of wheat production was under drought conditions, compared with 96.03% a year earlier, while by the end of June the indicator had reached 0%. This improvement provides a more favorable starting point, but a strong El Niño requires water reserves and temperatures to remain under close observation ahead of the next agricultural cycles.

In the livestock sector, drought and heat can reduce the availability and quality of pasture, increase water and supplemental feed requirements, and generate heat stress, while favorable rainfall can accelerate forage recovery. At the same time, the sector is closely linked to the grain market: strong growth in livestock demand for yellow corn demonstrates how a climate shock affecting crops can be passed through to production costs for meat, milk, poultry and pork. Livestock resilience will therefore depend not only on water and forage availability, but also on the prices and availability of animal feed.

Adaptation Measures

Guillermo Pérez, Director of Comprehensive Disaster Risk and Climate Change Management, Ministry of Agrarian, Territorial, and Urban Development (SEDATU), explains that the challenge is not only to forecast these phenomena, but also to ensure that information reaches the places where everyday life takes place. Pérez argues that risk information must reach every individual property to allow local authorities to accurately identify areas at risk of flooding, overflow, landslides, or saltwater intrusion.

Moreover, experts stressed that adaptation must begin before the most severe impacts occur. Proposed measures included rainwater harvesting, the recovery of water regulation reservoirs, the use of nature-based solutions, and greater efficiency in the agricultural sector.

During the event, participants argued for the need to review water concessions to incorporate climate variability, saying that the same volume of water cannot be guaranteed every year if weather conditions can change significantly. Finally, participants agreed that the response must be collective and involve different levels of government, academia, the private sector, social organizations, and communities.