FAO, OECD Project Global Food Production Growth to 2034

Global production and calorie availability from animal-based foods are expected to rise as incomes grow in middle-income countries, but improvements in agricultural productivity will be needed to reduce undernourishment and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034.

The report, a joint 21st edition analysis by FAO and the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), provides medium-term projections for global agricultural and fisheries markets at national, regional, and global levels. It forecasts a 6% increase in per capita calorie availability from agricultural and fisheries products over the next decade, driven largely by rapid growth in lower-middle-income countries, where consumption is projected to increase by 24%, nearly four times the global average.

While this growth will raise average per capita calorie intake to 364 calories per day in these countries, disparities both within and between countries remain a challenge. In low-income countries, daily per capita consumption of animal-based foods is expected to reach 143 calories, well below the FAO reference value of 300 calories for a healthy diet.

“Tools exist to end hunger and improve global food security. Coordinated policies are needed to keep global food markets open while promoting long-term improvements in agricultural productivity and sustainability. OECD and FAO can support policymakers worldwide with data, analysis, and evidence-based recommendations,” said Mathias Cormann, Secretary General, OECD.

QU Dongyu, Director-General, FAO, said the projections indicate improved nutrition in developing countries but stressed that efforts must reach the lowest-income populations. He also welcomed the projected reduction in carbon intensity of agri-food systems but said further improvements are needed.

Global agricultural and fisheries production is expected to increase by about 14% by 2034, largely due to higher productivity in middle-income countries. However, growth will also increase livestock numbers and cultivated areas. Meat, dairy, and egg production is projected to rise 17%, while global livestock stocks are expected to grow just 7%. These changes will lead to a 6% rise in direct agricultural GHG emissions over the next decade, reflecting a decrease in the carbon intensity of production.

Productivity gains are expected to put downward pressure on real commodity prices, which could challenge small farmers vulnerable to market volatility and with limited access to productivity-enhancing technologies. Governments are encouraged to improve market access and provide tailored support programs alongside productivity initiatives. Combined investments in emission-reducing technologies and a 15% increase in agricultural productivity could potentially eradicate global undernourishment and reduce direct agricultural GHG emissions by 7%. Technologies include precision agriculture, improved livestock feed, better nutrient and water management, and scalable low-cost practices such as crop rotation and intercropping.

Global cereal production is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%, driven by a 0.9% increase in yields, while harvested area will expand only 0.14% per year, less than half the rate of the previous decade. By 2034, 40% of all cereals will be consumed directly by humans, 33% will be used for animal feed, and the remainder for biofuels and other industrial uses. Global biofuel demand is projected to grow 0.9% annually, driven primarily by Brazil, India, and Indonesia.

Sub-Saharan Africa presents opportunities to boost productivity, as the region’s beef herd is three times larger than North America’s, but per-animal output is only one-tenth. India and Southeast Asia are projected to account for 39% of global consumption growth through 2034, compared with 32% in the previous decade, while China’s share will decline to 13% from 32%. In high-income countries, per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners is expected to decrease due to changing preferences, policies, and emerging health concerns.