Food Imports and the Illusion of Self-Sufficiency

Following up on agricultural policies and food production, dear reader, I want to discuss a point of view which is relevant for our near future: food self-sufficiency.

Since the definition is somewhat subjective, meaning that being "sufficient" depends on many factors that are complex to measure, we can look at it inversely as "dependency," which can be demonstrated more simply by what we lack and need to procure from elsewhere. Even this concept can be defined in several ways: by the financial cost relative to other imports, by the volume of essential staples (like cereals), or by the net caloric deficit.

Here is a breakdown of the current global landscape of food import dependency for 2024–25:

• Top Countries by food Imports as share of their total imports.

1. Eritrea              46%      Arid climate and limited arable land.
2. Guinea-Bisau  42%      Dependence on rice imports; limited processing.
3. Kiribati             41%      Small island nation; soil unsuitable for most crops.
4. Yemen             39%      Conflict-driven disruption of local farming.
5. Sierra Leone   32%      Post-conflict recovery and infrastructure gaps.

As you can see, these countries spend the highest percentage of their total import budget on food. This often indicates a lack of domestic agricultural infrastructure or extreme geographic constraints, including conflicts that disrupt food production or sourcing.

The 'Wealthy Dependent' Paradox

Some of the world's most food-secure nations are also the most dependent on imports. This is because they have the wealth to buy what they cannot (or choose not to) grow. Just three examples of such nations are:

• Singapore: Imports over 90% of its food. Despite this, it consistently ranks as one of the most food-secure nations due to high purchasing power and diverse trade partnerships.
• Japan: Relies heavily on wheat, corn, and soy imports but maintains a caloric self-sufficiency rate of only about 38% (I will explain this concept in the following paragraphs)
• The United Kingdom: Imports roughly 46% of the food it consumes, with a high dependency on seasonal fruits and vegetables from Europe.

Categories of Dependency

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) uses different metrics to define these levels:

• Cereal Import Dependency Ratio: This measures how much of a country's staple grains (wheat, rice, corn) come from abroad. High Dependency: Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE) often have ratios exceeding 50–90% because water scarcity makes large-scale grain farming difficult. Low Dependency: Countries like Brazil, Argentina, and the United States have negative ratios, meaning they are net exporters.
• Net Calorie Position: Also called the Food Import Dependency Ratio, this metric is used in agricultural economics to measure the extent to which a country relies on imports to meet the caloric needs of its population. Instead of looking at the monetary value of trade, this metric converts all food items (wheat, rice, meat, and others) into their caloric equivalent. Countries with low population density and vast land (Canada, Russia, Australia) produce more calories than they consume, so they are net exporters. Inversely, net importers are heavily populated or resource-poor regions (China, India, Sub-Saharan Africa) and often need to import specific high-calorie items like soy or oils to meet total demand.

This gives us a clearer picture of how nations face the burden of food imports or the choice to use arable land and resources for something different than secure sustenance. But our world is not constant. All seasons are different and many factors come into play when producing food. Let’s reflect on three major factors we face:

• Geopolitical Shocks: War and conflicts are an important driver of food disruption. An example is the war in Ukraine, which highlighted how dependent North Africa is on Black Sea wheat, since the prospect of interruption of imports caused instability.
• Climate Change: Agriculture and climate go hand in hand. Some places, such as small island nations and arid regions, experience real distress when there is a lack of rain, or the opposite: devastating flooding that compromises their "self-sufficiency potential," forcing a higher reliance on global markets to procure their nation’s needs.
• Economic Vulnerability: For low-income countries (like those in Sub-Saharan Africa), a rise in global food prices is catastrophic because food already makes up a massive portion of their national spending.

This is the international context of how dependency is regarded. Based upon this, let’s bring these arguments to Mexico. Our country is a tale of two sectors: the country is a global powerhouse in high-value exports (avocados, berries, tomatoes), but it is increasingly vulnerable in basic staples such as corn, wheat, and soy.

As of late 2025, climate change, in particular, has intensified this divide, pushing Mexico to become one of the world's largest importers of yellow corn. I mentioned this in my last article. People on the streets of Mexico are benefiting from cheaper and more available animal protein products, such as eggs, chicken, pork, but they are struggling with the availability of affordable white corn masa and tortillas.

We can call this the "corn paradox." While Mexico is largely self-sufficient in white corn (for tortillas), it has hit record-high imports of yellow corn (for livestock feed), projected to reach 25.8 million metric tons for the 2025-26 cycle.

Of the disruption factors we mentioned earlier, climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in Mexico, primarily through extreme water volatility. Consider that Mexico's northern states (Sinaloa, Sonora) grow the bulk of Mexico's irrigated crops. Prolonged "chronic" droughts have depleted dam levels, forcing farmers to reduce planted areas for corn and wheat by double-digit percentages in 2024–25.

In the southern states (Chiapas, Oaxaca), which are reliant on rain-fed agriculture, erratic rainfall patterns have made planting windows unpredictable, leading to a 6% increase in food insecurity at the municipal level in these regions.

It is not only about grains. In 2024 and 2025, heatwaves drove price spikes in fruits and vegetables up to 200%. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) now classifies climate change as a primary systemic risk to national inflation. Furthermore, UNAM studies indicate that without aggressive adaptation, corn yields could drop by up to 42% by the end of the century due to rising temperatures and water scarcity.

In response to this vulnerability, President Claudia Sheinbaum's national strategy, outlined in the “Plan México" (2025–2030), includes focusing on decreasing food dependency and achieving food sovereignty:

• Import Substitution. To reduce reliance on foreign grains, investing US$1.53 billion to boost domestic production of corn, beans, rice, and milk.
• Agro-Ecological Beacons to embrace climate adaptation by establishing regional "nodes" for drought-resistant seed production and water-efficient technologies.
• Smallholder Focus on distant regions, with the aim of reducing poverty. Providing technical assistance and "Fertilizers for Well-Being" to 464,000 small-scale farmers.
• Water Modernization to use this resource more efficiently, transitioning irrigation systems to precision-water sensors and drip technology.

Nevertheless, Mexico is dependent on imports of approximately 56% of its total grain consumption. To decrease dependency, the production of those grains can only be met by farmers with more hectares, with irrigation, and proper machinery. And these farmers are not accounted for in the government’s approach to increase food sovereignty.

Just to put the perilous situation of Mexico within the context of other similar Latin American countries, excluding major powerhouses like Brazil and Argentina, let's quickly contrast Mexico, Peru and Colombia.

In 2025, the comparison between these countries reveals a shared regional struggle: all three are "export stars" in fruits and vegetables; yet, they face a deepening dependency on imported staples (grains and oils) that climate change is making more expensive.

The following table compares the dependency of those countries: [1]

The similarities are remarkable, and particularly, how climate plays a major role in their performance.

Unlike drought in Mexico, Colombia's primary climate threat is erratic, heavy rainfall. In 2024–2025, "La Niña" patterns caused landslides that blocked mountain roads, making it cheaper to import grain through Caribbean ports than to transport domestic crops from the highlands.

Peru is arguably the most climate-fragile of the three. It has become a global leader in high-value exports like blueberries, but its domestic food security is tied to the Pacific Ocean. In 2025, "very strong" El Niño events caused agricultural output to drop by 11% in a single year. This volatility forces Peru into the global market to buy wheat and rice whenever local harvests fail. The Andes provide the water for Peru's coastal "export miracle." As glaciers melt, the long-term water supply for these desert farms is disappearing, threatening the revenue Peru uses to buy its imported staples.

All three countries face the same paradox: they are using their best land and water to grow "luxury" crops for the Global North (United States, Europe, China). This generates wealth but leaves them exposed to global price shocks for the food their own populations eat every day. In 2025, as transport costs rise due to climate-related shipping delays, this model is being called into question by local policymakers.

It is necessary to stay informed about how these topics impact the livelihoods of people in every corner of the world, and particularly in Mexico where we face major challenges in a volatile market, trade burdens with our regional partners, and climate change impact on our food production. I believe our farmers are sounding the alarm regarding something we frequently take for granted: our three meals a day. We should listen and participate.

Please feel free to contact me at paco_salas@yahoo.com