Heavy Rains Threaten Coffee Harvest in Guerrero

Recent rainfall could affect the coffee harvest in Guerrero’s mountainous region, threatening significant economic losses for local producers, according to farmers in the area. Juan Castro, former Commissioner of Communal Lands of Tierra Colorada in Guerrero, said that the most recent cold fronts have brought heavy rains that could impact between 30% and 40% of production in the region. He explained that the harvest season began in late November and will run through the end of February, adding that producers hope weather conditions do not worsen further.

According to Mexico’s National Meteorological Service, the arrival of a new cold front from the northwest is expected to increase cloud cover across the region, along with cooler afternoon and nighttime temperatures. Intervals of showers ranging from 5mm to 25mm are forecast for Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. Castro confirmed that the municipalities most affected so far include Iliatenco, Santa Cruz del Rincon, San Luis Acatlan, Malinaltepec, and Tlacoapa.

While rainfall is necessary for the healthy development of coffee plants, excess moisture can lead to several negative consequences. Carolina Ramírez, Researcher, National Coffee Research Center (CENICAFÉ), noted that excessive rainfall can trigger plant diseases, reduce floral induction, and cause nutrient leaching in soils. These effects are compounded by losses due to erosion and difficulties in the formation of reproductive structures.

To ensure producers’ incomes are not compromised, optimal rainfall levels should range between 1,500mm and 2,000mm per year, or approximately 125mm per month. “One of the main impacts is a decline in the formation of flower buds, especially when there are more than 20 days per quarter with high soil moisture and low solar energy availability. This disrupts the natural stimulus the plant needs to flower, reducing its productive potential,” Ramírez explained.

Castro highlighted that most of the region’s coffee harvest will be sold directly to the federal government through the Coffee for Well-Being program. Under this scheme, Coffee for Well-Being is currently paying MX$65/kg (US$3.62/kg) for coffee cherries, compared to MX$55/kg to MX$58/kg offered by intermediaries. “If the positive price trend continues and the harvests are no longer affected by the weather, coffee-producing families will earn a good income, which would help cover their most basic expenses,” the producer said.

He also expressed hope that authorities remain committed to maintaining favorable market prices, noting that in the past, prices were so low that many producers became discouraged, as earnings were insufficient even for basic survival.

Beyond federal support, state-level initiatives are also underway to strengthen the coffee value chain and boost producers’ incomes. Teodora Ramírez, State Minister of Economic Development and Promotion, announced in October that more than 20 producers are receiving support to commercialize their products. She explained that these producers have already registered their brand and are now working on packaging that meets freshness and quality standards.

Regarding the challenges facing coffee growers in Guerrero, Ramírez acknowledged that limited connectivity and the digital divide make it difficult for producers to travel to cities and properly follow up on commercialization projects. She added that a defining characteristic of coffee producers in Guerrero is their small scale, typically owning 1ha or even 0.5ha, in contrast to producers in Chiapas, where coffee farms can reach 50ha.

In terms of exports, she explained that shipments are handled through third parties. Producers sell their coffee to national buyers who aggregate the product and ultimately export it. Ramírez also addressed the issue of generational turnover in the sector. “Many producers are elderly, and there has been no generational replacement. As a result, they have aging plants and coffee plantations that are over 100 years old. Three generations have worked these farms, and yields are no longer the same,” she said.

Guerrero ranks fifth nationwide in coffee production. The upper areas of the Costa Grande region lead production, followed by the Costa Chica and La Montaña regions, with an annual output exceeding 589t, according to the Agrifood and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP).

According to the Agrifood Outlook 2018–2024, national coffee production reached 1.05Mt in 2023. The main producing states were Chiapas, Veracruz, Puebla, Oaxaca, and Guerrero. Mexico currently ranks 13th worldwide in coffee production, with the United States as its primary export destination, followed by countries such as Belgium, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea, among others.