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How to Address the Food Insecurity Driving Forced Migration

By Bram Govaerts - CIMMYT
Director General

STORY INLINE POST

Tue, 05/09/2023 - 14:00

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Now that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading authority on climate science, has finalized its Sixth Assessment cycle and published the corresponding Synthesis Report in March 2023, it has become clear that all countries must make serious commitments to cut fossil fuel emissions from oil, gas and coal consumption, but also to halt deforestation and transform food systems to avoid climate disaster. Global temperatures have already increased by over 1.2°C, as compared to pre-industrial levels. The world is not on track to keep global warming below 2°C by the end of the 21st century. The more desirable 1.5°C limit now seems completely out of reach and unrealistic. 

This is bad news for food systems across the world but especially for small-scale farming systems that rely on seasonal rains and are, therefore, more vulnerable to the combined effects of a hotter and drier world. Stable weather conditions determine agricultural productivity, nutritional quality and yields in the long run. The average yields of staple crops like maize and wheat are clearly affected by rising temperatures. Researchers at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) estimate that, without adaptation, each Celsius degree increase in global mean temperatures will reduce, on average, maize yields by 7.4% and wheat yields by 6.0%. Diminishing yields caused by climate change are already causing havoc in the food insecure regions of the world, including Central America where, approximately, 5.8 million people suffer from acute food insecurity in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, according to the Central American Integration System (SICA). 

Inextricable Connection

Food production is an intrinsic aspect of human security, which in turn becomes a foundational element of national security. The challenge of laying solid foundations for food security is becoming harder due to the combined effects of climate change, conflict, COVID-19, and spiraling inflation, or the cost-of-living crisis. These shocks are driving food insecurity in Central America and the Caribbean, where millions who have lost their livelihoods to extreme weather events live under threat of gang-related violence. The latest estimates from the World Food Program indicate that 9.7 million in 12 countries of the Americas – Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Peru and Venezuela – are extremely food insecure. As a result, migration flows from the region have dramatically increased after the peak of the pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of people from crisis-stricken countries heading north in an attempt to reach the US through Mexico. 

Food Security Builds Resilience, Peace

Climate change, conflict and economic hardship have brought about the worst food security crisis in decades. Fortunately, there are a series of adaptation measures that can mitigate the crisis and help vulnerable farming communities adapt to the challenging environment by building systemic resilience and, ultimately, peace; these include:

  • Investing in national breeding programs that develop new high-yielding, climate-resilient, disease-resistant and more nutritious crop varieties that smallholder farmers grow, such as maize, sorghum, groundnuts and beans.

  • Enhancing soil management practices and fertilizer use efficiency to regenerate soils and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the excessive use of nitrogen fertilizers. 

  • Scaling up extension and advisory services on agricultural, crop, soil and water management practices and post-harvest storage options, including early warning and detection systems of prevalent and emerging pests and diseases induced by climate change that threaten crop production. 

  • Strengthening local small and medium-sized seed companies to enhance access, availability and diversity of improved, climate-resilient seeds. 

  • Increase access to credit and finance for small and medium-sized agribusinesses and smallholder farmers to support access to quality inputs and accelerate the transformation of local food systems. 

To solve tomorrow’s problems today, we need to ask ourselves how climate change and conflict may shift agricultural production and productivity in 10, 20 or 30 years from now. A pioneering study in the early 2000s , The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Global Environmental Change (Jones, P.G. and Thornton, P.K. (2003) 13, 51-59), found that maize yields could fall by 12.6% in El Salvador, 4% in Guatemala, 16.2%  in Honduras, 7.4% in Mexico, and by 17.7% in Nicaragua by the year 2055 if we fail to implement adaptation and mitigation measures. The consequences of such yield losses would be catastrophic for a region that is increasingly food insecure and generating unprecedented migration flows.  

To avoid disaster, we must take immediate action in the face of the current crisis to adapt, or transform, food systems and set in motion longer-term solutions. CIMMYT is ready to implement the Integrated Agrifood Systems Initiatives in Central America and the Caribbean by leveraging its world-class research for development network and on-the-ground partnerships. The methodology was perfected in Mexico with the implementation of the successful 10-year project MasAgro, which scaled up sustainable intensification-based farming practices and new high-yielding and climate resilient crop varieties on over 1 million hectares across the country, benefiting more than 300,000 farmers. Addressing the human, social, governance, and economic issues that influence uptake of innovative ideas and practices in the smallholder farming communities that support our food systems, stability and peace is fundamental to success, but funding and political will remain key to deploy and scale up the strategies and solutions that we already have at hand. 

Bram Govaerts is Director General a.i. and CEO at CIMMYT. He is an international authority in maize and wheat cropping systems who works for a successful transition to sustainable intensification of small-scale farming in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Govaerts advises public, private and social organizations worldwide and is an active member of research groups and programs including the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, the Knowledge Systems for Sustainability platform, the A. D. White Professor-at-Large program at Cornell University, and the American Society of Agronomy.

Photo by:   Bram Govaerts

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