Mexico, Central America Prepare for El Niño Risks

International climate projections estimate up to an 80% probability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions developing in the coming months, raising concerns over rainfall patterns, water availability and agricultural production across Mexico and Central America.

In response, regional institutions, research centers, governments and private-sector representatives met this week in CIMMYT’s facilities in Texcoco, State of Mexico, to strengthen coordinated preparedness, anticipatory action and early-response mechanisms aimed at reducing the potential impacts of ENSO on agriculture and food security.

Participants developed a regional agenda focused on strengthening early warning systems, agroclimatic monitoring and technical recommendations for highly vulnerable agricultural territories in Mexico and Central America. The discussions were structured around five strategic areas: water and soil management, production and seeds, information and communication, institutional coordination, and financing.

One of the workshop’s main objectives was designing a regional mechanism to monitor ENSO probabilities and assess potential impacts on the Central American Dry Corridor, particularly regarding agricultural production, water availability and food security. The initiative seeks to support governments, agribusinesses and technical institutions with timely analysis, territorial prioritization and faster decision-making under different climate scenarios.

The discussions prioritized crops considered strategic for regional food security, including corn, beans, rice, wheat and sorghum, as well as forage crops for livestock production. Institutions also focused on regenerative agriculture practices, adapted seed varieties, drought-resistant production alternatives and nutrient management strategies aimed at reducing production risks under erratic rainfall conditions.

The workshop also addressed post-harvest storage systems, seed preservation and communication strategies designed to translate technical recommendations into practical guidance for rural communities, agribusinesses, governments and other stakeholders.

Participating institutions agreed that strengthening regional preparedness, territorial coordination and anticipatory action mechanisms will be critical to reducing production risks, protecting food security and supporting smallholder farmers amid increasing climate variability.

The regional discussions coincide with intensified coordination efforts by FAO, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the World Food Programme (WFP), which are supporting Latin American and Caribbean governments in preparation for El Niño-related impacts.

During a high-level roundtable, the agencies discussed early action measures, preparedness strategies and resilience-building mechanisms against extreme weather events. Despite recent progress, more than 33 million people in the region still suffer from hunger, 167 million face moderate or severe food insecurity and more than 181 million cannot afford a healthy diet. The Americas also account for 22% of global agricultural disaster losses, estimated at US$713 billion.

The World Meteorological Organization estimates the probability of El Niño between 70% and 80%, with peak intensity expected later this year. Forecasts indicate increased rainfall in parts of South America and reduced precipitation across Central America and North America, heightening drought risks in the Central American Dry Corridor.

The agencies also warned that elevated international prices for fuel, fertilizers and food could further pressure food systems and social protection mechanisms by reducing household purchasing power and increasing humanitarian needs.

Several Central American countries have already activated anticipatory action plans with UN cooperation after meteorological thresholds indicating water scarcity risk were reached. More than 76,000 people are currently receiving preparedness support through practical guidance, cash transfers, grain distribution and weather monitoring systems.

During the 2023-2024 El Niño cycle, anticipatory actions implemented in nine countries benefited more than 100,000 people across 250 rural communities through cash transfers, agricultural inputs, irrigation rehabilitation, livestock health brigades and technical capacity-building programs. In some Central American countries, the interventions contributed to production increases of up to 40% in corn and bean crops.

“Facing El Niño, anticipatory actions implemented alongside governments and partners in nine countries across the region benefited hundreds of rural communities, with direct support, rehabilitation of water and irrigation systems, distribution of agricultural inputs and capacity-building programs, protecting livelihoods and increasing basic crop production by up to 40%,” said Rene Orellana Halkyer, Assistant Director General and Regional Representative for Latin America and the Caribbean, FAO.

“Extreme climate events will continue to occur, but we can prevent them from triggering humanitarian crises. By combining insurance, credit and digital financial services, we help governments and communities withstand droughts, floods and storms,” said Lena Savelli, Regional Director, WFP.