Mexico Inflation Rises to 4.02% as Food Prices Increase

Consumer inflation in Mexico accelerated to 4.02% annually in February, its highest level since June 2025, driven largely by rising food prices. The increase pushed inflation above Banxico´s target range of 3% ±1 percentage point after seven consecutive months within the band.

Consumer prices in Mexico rose in February as higher food and service costs put renewed pressure on household spending, signaling persistent inflation risks for the country’s monetary policy outlook. The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) increased 0.50% month-on-month in February and 4.02% year-on-year, according to INEGI. The reading exceeded analysts’ expectations (Banamex had projected 3.96%) and marked the highest level since June 2025, when inflation reached 4.32%.

The increase also ended a period of relative stability in which inflation remained within the central bank’s target range for several months. At the start of the year, price pressures were influenced by tax changes affecting cigarettes and sugary beverages, including sodas, juices and similar drinks, as well as light or zero beverages. 

Food Prices Push Inflation Higher

Underlying inflation, which excludes volatile items and represents about 76% of the consumer price index, continued to show persistent pressures.  Food-related categories were among the main contributors to the increase. Food, beverages and tobacco recorded annual inflation of 6.20%, while education and other services linked to food consumption outside the home rose 6.04% and 5.20% annually, respectively. Several staple foods experienced notable monthly increases, including tomatoes, potatoes, lemons and bananas, reflecting volatility in agricultural prices that continues to affect consumer spending.

Non-core inflation rose 0.64% month-on-month and reached 2.44% annually in February. Within this category, agricultural products increased 4.50%, while energy and government-regulated tariffs rose 0.89%.

Global Food Markets Show Renewed Volatility

Developments in international food markets also provide context for domestic price pressures. According to FAO, its global Food Price Index averaged 125.3 points in February 2026, an increase of 0.9% from January and the first rise after five consecutive monthly declines. Although the index remained slightly below its level from a year earlier, it reflects continued volatility in global agricultural markets.

The FAO reported increases in the prices of cereals, meat and vegetable oils, which more than offset declines in dairy products and sugar. The cereal price index rose 1.1% month-on-month, supported by higher wheat prices linked to frost risks in the United States and Europe, logistical disruptions in Russia and continued tensions in the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, the vegetable oil index increased 3.3%, reaching its highest level since June 2022 due to strong global demand and seasonal production declines in Southeast Asia.

The meat price index rose 0.8%, driven mainly by higher prices for beef and lamb amid strong import demand from China and the United States and tighter export supplies from major producers such as Australia and Brazil.

Economists warn that persistent increases in food prices, both domestically and internationally, could continue to shape Mexico’s inflation trajectory in the coming months, influencing consumer spending and monetary policy decisions as the central bank seeks to maintain price stability.