Mexico’s Avocado Exports Surge as Prices Weigh on Revenues

Mexico’s avocado exports to the United States increased 35% in 1Q26, reinforcing the country’s position as the world’s leading supplier and supporting record production forecasts despite growing global competition. However, lower international prices, peso appreciation and stricter export requirements are reducing export revenues, highlighting the need for greater market diversification, value-added production and risk management across Mexico’s agribusiness sector.

Mexico’s avocado exports to the United States maintained strong momentum during 1Q26, increasing 35% year-on-year from 370,551t to 501,824t, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER). In March alone, exports reached 148,511t, representing a 57% increase compared to the same month a year earlier.

In this context, avocados ranked as Mexico’s second-largest agri-food export to the United States in 2025, behind only beer, generating US$3.6 billion and accounting for 8.1% of Mexico’s total agri-food exports to that market.

Regional Drivers of Export Growth

SADER highlighted that the strong export performance is driving economic development in the exporting states of Michoacan, Jalisco, State of Mexico, and Nayarit, while reinforcing Mexico’s position as the world’s leading supplier of avocados.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Michoacan remained Mexico’s leading avocado-producing state in 2025, with 2.04Mt, representing 75% of national production. It also continues to be the country’s main exporter to the United States. Jalisco ranked second with 276,851t, accounting for around 10% of total production, and has steadily expanded its international presence since receiving authorization to export avocados to the US in 2022.

State of Mexico, Nayarit and Morelos ranked third, fourth and fifth, respectively. Their production primarily supplies the domestic market, while also serving several international destinations, including Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Malaysia, Singapore, Morocco and Japan.

In November 2025, the government of Nayarit announced that the state had obtained authorization to export avocados to the United States, which would make it the third Mexican state permitted to access the US market. However, the Association of Avocado Producers and Exporting Packers of Mexico (APEAM) later clarified that no official document signed by the US Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has been issued confirming that authorization.

Mexico Leads Global Avocado Trade

Mexico accounted for 40.1% of global avocado exports in 2025, setting a new export record with shipments valued at US$3.97 billion, up 3.6% year-on-year. Although approximately 65% of avocado orchards still depend on seasonal rainfall, Mexican producers are rapidly adopting pressurized irrigation systems. The expansion of high-efficiency irrigation is improving both water management and tree nutrition, strengthening the sector’s resilience.

Favorable weather conditions throughout 2025 are also expected to support higher production in 2026. The 2025 rainy season extended later than usual, with significant rainfall during November and early December replenishing critical volcanic aquifers that supply many avocado-growing regions.

Higher Volumes, Lower Returns

Mexico’s avocado production is projected to reach 2.8Mt in 2026, representing a 3% increase over 2025 and setting a new all-time record. The USDA expects harvested area to remain stable at approximately 268,000ha. Mexico’s avocado industry continues to lead global production, accounting for an estimated 28% of worldwide output.

Despite the positive production outlook, the value of avocado exports declined 22% during 1Q26 and nearly 29% in April, driven by a combination of sharply lower international prices and the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the US dollar, according to Panorama, a report published by MUNDI.

The report notes that the wholesale price of large-size Hass avocados in the United States fell to US$1 per pound in April, reflecting an oversupplied global market fueled by an exceptionally strong harvest.

At the same time, Latin American producers such as Peru and Colombia continue to strengthen their presence in the US market. Together, the region is expected to surpass 1Mt of avocado exports during the 2025-2026 season.

This expansion has been driven by new orchard development, increased investment and well-defined strategies to gain market share in both the United States and Europe. Peru continues to lead in export volume and logistics capacity, while Colombia is rapidly emerging as one of the world's leading avocado suppliers.

The appreciation of the Mexican peso further reduced exporters’ revenues in local currency, as the exchange rate strengthened from around MX$18 to MX$17.50 per US dollar.

Under these increasingly competitive conditions, Martin Pustilnick, CEO, MUNDI, said the next phase of Mexico’s avocado industry should focus on generating greater value while improving risk management across international trade.

“This is not a demand crisis. It is a signal that the sector needs to take the next step: more value-added products, greater market diversification and broader use of financial tools that enable exporters to navigate volatility without compromising their operations,” Pustilnick said.

In parallel, he noted that the industry is also facing a new regulatory landscape, including deforestation-free export requirements, new labor certification standards, stricter traceability requirements and the upcoming review of the USMCA, all of which are reshaping access to international markets.

Pustilnick also emphasized that this year’s record harvest may not be repeated. Although another favorable crop is expected, around 65% of Mexico’s avocado orchards still depend on seasonal rainfall, meaning that a potential El Niño event during the second half of 2026 could negatively affect fruit size and yields in the following harvest.