Mexico's Corn Imports Hit Record as Output Falls in 2026

Mexico's corn production is projected to fall to 23.5Mt in 2026 while imports reach a record 24.8Mt, leaving domestic output below half of the 48.2Mt of apparent consumption, according to GCMA. The widening deficit, driven by drought in Sinaloa, high input costs, limited financing, and low yields, deepens Mexico's reliance on US grain amid tighter global supply forecast by FAO and USDA. Producers, livestock, and food processors face pressure to stabilize supply and tortilla prices.

In the framework of National Corn Day, the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) warns that Mexico's production is insufficient to meet domestic demand and that the country is heading toward a new all-time high in imports. In 2026, the national harvest is projected to fall 3% from the previous year to 23.5Mt, while imports will reach 24.8Mt to cover the deficit.

According to SIAP data reported by GCMA, Mexico produced 27.7Mt of corn in 2017, with apparent consumption of 40.3Mt, representing a self-sufficiency rate of 69%. For 2026, the consultancy estimates apparent consumption of 48.2Mt, meaning domestic production will cover less than half of demand. Between 2017 and 2026, production fell by about 4.2Mt, while consumption rose by nearly 7.9Mt.

Juan Carlos Anaya, Director General, GCMA, says the situation is not only the result of a poor harvest or a temporary price problem, but the consequence of poor public policy decisions. He attributed the decline to depressed international prices, the appreciation of the peso, high production costs, insufficient access to financing, and agricultural insurance, and a lack of certainty on commercialization before planting. "Mexico needs a long-term national corn policy, with a budget, clear rules and measurable targets for area, productivity, production and self-sufficiency," he says.

Productivity also lags behind. The national average yield is about 3.8t/ha, compared with 11.5t/ha in the United States, 7.1t/ha in Ukraine, 6.8t/ha in China and a global average of 6.1t/ha. In addition, 82% of Mexican producers farm plots smaller than 5ha and rely mainly on rain-fed agriculture, with an average output of 2.5t/ha.

Record Imports

In 2025, Mexico broke its corn import record for the third consecutive year, with 24.5Mt, 4.1% more than the 23.6Mt imported in 2024, according to GCMA. Of the total, 900,000t were white corn, a 350% increase from the 200,000t of the previous year. However, this was not the highest figure in recent years: Mexico imported 1.5Mt of white corn in 2011, 1.4Mt in 2012, 900,000t in 2015, and 1.1Mt in both 2016 and 2018.

The trend continues this year. From January to July 2026, Mexico imported 14.72Mt of corn, a record for that period and 7.4% more than a year earlier. By comparison, the country imported 15.4Mt in all of 2017.

Globally, FAO forecast that world corn production will reach 1,309Mt in 2026, 0.6% less than its June forecast. The reduction is mainly due to worsening harvest prospects in the European Union, where persistent heat and dry conditions during the summer in major producing areas, particularly France and Poland, deteriorated crop conditions and lowered yield expectations below five-year averages.

This is consistent with projections from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which expects lower global corn production for the 2026-2027 cycle, at 1,291Mt against consumption of 1,320Mt. This dynamic will push global ending stocks down to 272Mt and keep prices in a tight environment, the agency said.

In this context, Mexico ranks as the world's seventh-largest corn producer but the largest importer. In the domestic market, as of Sept. 18, white corn prices fell 3.6% year over year to MX5,700/t,whileyellowcornrose2.5%toMX5,100/t.

Sinaloa and the Decline in Production

At the national level, the contraction in the harvest is mainly due to an estimated 8.5% drop in the spring-summer cycle, which would contribute 17.8Mt. In that cycle, which covers the country's largest agricultural area, 5.4 million hectares were harvested in 2026, 800,000 fewer than the 6.2 million harvested in 2017.

This is partly due to the drop in production in Sinaloa, Mexico's leading white corn producer, as a result of drought. In the state, production fell from 6.8Mt to 1.8Mt during the water shortage, which brought dam reserves to extremely low levels and forced farmers to restrict planting, switch crops or leave land idle.

Samuel Sarmiento, Researcher, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, explains that rising input costs for fertilizers, seeds, and diesel, the drought and changes to federal programs meant that only 584,000 of the state's 800,000ha of irrigated land were planted in the 2025-2026 autumn-winter cycle. Due to the lack of water, average yields fell from 12.5t/ha to 10.5t/ha, and some farmers lost up to MX$12,000/ha. In addition, FIRA estimates that growing corn in the next cycle will cost 3% more than the previous year. 

Columba López, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, led meetings with producers and state authorities to work on the profitability of the next cycle. Topics included marketing the corn harvest through advance purchases and agreements with industry, access to financing at preferential rates, a review of overdue loans and measures to contain input costs.

One of the specific announcements is the launch of a SADER-supervised digital platform where registered distributors will offer agricultural inputs at competitive prices. The initiative seeks to reduce intermediaries and lower per-hectare costs for autumn-winter crops, particularly white corn and wheat.

The water recovery opens up more possibilities for that cycle. September rains substantially increased combined storage in Sinaloa's reservoirs, although conditions remain uneven across dams, which requires careful management of the resource. Even with favorable planting, the new volume would reach the market around mid-2027, according to GCMA.

National Corn Day

To commemorate National Corn Day, López inaugurated the Great National Elotiza in Mexico City's Zócalo, where more than 25,000 ears of corn of different varieties were handed out for free. Under the slogan "We are made of corn, we stand for corn," the event featured about 20 stands with producers from Mexico City, the State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla, and Tlaxcala, while all 32 states participated simultaneously from their community plazas.

López said the government is working on a national strategy to strengthen food sovereignty, protect native corn varieties, support producers and keep tortilla prices stable. Among its actions, she highlighted the Agroecological Conservation Plots of Sowing Life, which focus on the genetic improvement of native corn, and the Harvesting Sovereignty program, which operates with FIRCO and FIRA and offers loans at rates of 8.5% to 17.5%, along with insurance against climate contingencies. She also announced that work will begin this year on the genetic improvement of seeds for climate change adaptation in Sinaloa, the Mexicali Valley and Tamaulipas. "We are not going to produce GMOs, so Mexico's corn is protected and its supply is guaranteed until 2030," says López. She also rules out an increase in tortilla prices.

At the local level, Clara Brugada, Mayor of Mexico City, presented 10 strategic actions to protect native corn. These include strengthening the Altépetl Program, protecting the territory from genetically modified corn, creating a molecular analysis laboratory and a germplasm bank, and promoting native corn tortilla shops in the 100 Utopías.