Record Corn Imports Deepen Pressure on Grain Producers

Mexico’s corn imports surged 25% year-on-year in January 2026, reaching 1.9Mt, driven by higher US shipments and favorable price differentials. The influx is pressuring domestic corn prices and leaving producers in regions like Bajio, Chihuahua, and Sinaloa with large unsold inventories, highlighting structural challenges in market saturation, productivity, and commercialization support. 

Mexico’s corn imports in January posted a 25% year-on-year increase, driven largely by higher purchases from the United States, intensifying pressure on domestic prices as producers in key agricultural regions struggle with unsold inventories and weakened market conditions.

According to data from Mexico’s National Customs Agency (ANAM), in January 2026 combined imports of white and yellow corn reached an unprecedented 1.9Mt, representing a 24.7% increase compared to the 1.5Mt,  recorded in the same month of 2025. The total cost of these imports amounted to US$403 million, marking a 15.8% increase compared to the previous year.

An analysis by the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) highlights a 292.9% surge in foreign purchases of white corn, with the United States standing out as the main supplier. Imports of US white corn rose from 28,000t to 110,000t year-on-year.

“This increase is generating direct pressure on the domestic market and coincides with significant volumes still to be commercialized in the Bajio region, where producers are facing weakened prices due to competition from imported grain. It also reflects a substantial shift in the external sourcing pattern,” said Juan Carlos Anaya, Director General of GCMA.

GCMA noted that pricing factors appear to be driving the rise in imports, even as the domestic market shows signs of saturation. In the Bajio, approximately 300,000t remain unsold, with producer prices ranging between MX$4,700/t and MX$4,800/t. In Chihuahua, inventories include 800,000t of yellow corn and 19,000t of white corn still awaiting commercialization. These surpluses are weighing on quotations and intensifying competition with imported grain. Meanwhile, for Sinaloa, the organization warns of a potential downward adjustment. Under current market conditions, corn from the Fall-Winter 2025/26 cycle could fall to MX$4,100/t, its lowest level in two years.

Anaya stressed the urgency for the federal government to provide certainty in commercialization mechanisms for corn producers. He recalled that contract farming programs and commercialization support schemes were eliminated during the administration of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. These programs had allowed producers to secure a minimum income, since they guaranteed a price and buyer at the time of planting.

“The issue of commercialization programs must be reconsidered. In addition, the disappearance of Financiera Nacional de Desarrollo and the lack of agricultural insurance mean that producers no longer have access to development banking or risk coverage. With international price declines and exchange rate pressures, producers are facing a crisis, a perfect storm,” Anaya said.

He explained that corn prices have fallen this year due to global overproduction and an unfavorable exchange rate that makes importing grain more attractive for large buyers. He added that current guaranteed price schemes benefit only small-scale producers, leaving medium-sized farmers excluded and creating distortions in the market.

César Galaviz, Former President, Del Río Fuerte Sur Farmers Association (AARFS), emphasized that the phenomenon is structural rather than temporary. He noted that the rise in imports reflects strong US corn production, which has intensified competition for Mexican grain. In this context, he argued that the price differential favors importing industries.

“It is more profitable for them to bring in cheaper corn from the United States, and that has significantly harmed us as grain producers,” Galaviz said. He insisted on maintaining differentiation between markets, recalling that a decree limits the use of genetically modified corn for human consumption and warning that yellow corn should not be mixed with white corn destined for food consumption.

He further argued that the underlying challenge lies in boosting national productivity. “If the government incentivizes and supports white corn production, yields could increase and we could supply 60% or 70% of domestic consumption,” he said. However, he warned that low imported grain prices combined with high local production costs leave many producers in a fragile position.

For his part, Agustín Espinoza, Secretary General, Coordinating Organization of the Peasant Movement in Sinaloa, warned that the massive inflow of foreign grain coincides with the period when thousands of domestic producers are about to market their harvests. This overlap puts downward pressure on internal prices and threatens the economic viability of production units.

Espinoza stressed that the sector does not oppose international trade or imports that complement national supply, but argued that market saturation must be avoided at critical moments for domestic commercialization. In agricultural communities, concern is already mounting that prices may not cover production costs, financial obligations, or planning for the next agricultural cycle, he stated.

In this context, the representative recalled that Mexico’s Sustainable Rural Development Law establishes the State’s obligation to promote sector profitability, reduce risks, and contribute to stability in agri-food markets. When market conditions undermine productive viability, he said, authorities should activate the mechanisms предусмотрed in the legal framework.

He concluded by warning that lack of profitability affects not only a particular region but national food security as a whole. If producing food becomes unviable for Mexican farmers, the impact extends beyond economics and compromises the country’s capacity to sustain its own basic grain production.

The increase in corn purchases also drove overall imports of grains and oilseeds, up 13.7%, from 3.3Mt in January 2025 to 3.8Mt in January this year. Sorghum showed the strongest dynamism, with volumes surging 833% to 56,000 t in January, compared to 6,000 t a year earlier. In value terms, imports rose from approximately US$1 million to US$10 million year-on-year, according to GCMA.

Rogelio García-Moreno, producer and member of the National Agricultural Council (CNA), explained that the rise in foreign purchases stems both from greater availability of feed grains in the United States amid its trade war with China and from lower productivity in Mexico, where planting largely depends on rainfall.

“Whatever we fail to produce domestically in sorghum will have to be imported, that gap has to be filled. We import yellow corn because that’s what the United States produces. It also produces sorghum,” he said.

Meanwhile, soybean imports increased 25.9% in volume and 31.3% in value. Similarly, rice imports rose 46% in volume and 34% in value. In contrast, bean imports fell 25.6% in volume and 41.7% in value, consistent with reduced external purchasing needs amid stronger domestic supply. Wheat imports declined 9.1% in volume and 12.3% in value, reflecting more moderate consumption and inventory adjustments.