Sugar Production Falls in 2023

According to projections released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Mexican sugar industry will stagnate in production and export levels during the next two commercial seasons ending in September 2024. Experts pointed out that these results are due to unfavorable weather conditions and high prices in fertilizers. 

SADER reported that during the last seven productive cycles, Mexico’s average annual sugar production reached 6.26 million t, while exports equaled 1.21 million t. USDA forecasts are slightly below those levels for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, with an average of 6.14 million tons for production and 1.10 million t for exports.

Particularly, sugar production for the 2022-23 marketing year is expected to reach 6.05 million t, lower than the previous cycle production due to unfavorable weather conditions and the high cost of fertilizers. Moreover, for the 2023/24 cycle, sugar production is forecast at 6.25 million, which reflects a slight increase over the previous harvest. 

Industry officials pointed out that drought conditions, rainfall during harvest and reduced use of fertilizer resulted in lower yields. However, they underscored that the resulting production will be enough for Mexico to meet its sugar export quota to the US this year. “The expected domestic production for the 2022-23 productive cycle provides sufficient availability for the total shipment of the quota without reducing the final inventories of its 2.5-month domestic consumption cycle,” an official statement reads.

A great part of Mexican sugar exports ends up in the US, the most profitable export market for Mexico. In December, 2022, the US increased the import quota of Mexican sugar to 1.18 million t. As of April 3, 2023, Mexico has exported 466,506 t to the northern country. 

The forecast for sugar exports for the 2023-24 season is 1.37 million t, with the expectation of continued demand from the US and a moderate growth in exports to other international markets due to lower production.