Tomato, Potato Prices Drive Up Mexico’s Food Costs

Rising tomato and potato prices are driving food inflation in Mexico, with supply disruptions linked to adverse weather conditions, water scarcity, crop disease, and trade uncertainty affecting agricultural production and exports. The increase is pushing food basket costs above the national inflation rate, creating additional pressure on household spending and highlighting risks for Mexico’s agribusiness sector.

The rising cost of tomatoes and potatoes increased household food spending in Mexico during May 2026, as supply constraints, adverse weather conditions, plant disease outbreaks, water shortages, and trade-related uncertainty pushed prices higher. 

According to the latest update of Mexico's Poverty Lines by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the average monthly expenditure per person to consume these two products reached MX$178 (US$10.3), the highest level recorded so far this year. The figure represents a 3.4% increase compared to April and a 95.9% jump from December 2025, when spending stood at MX$90.88. The calculation is based on a monthly consumption of 1.3kg of potatoes and 1.9kg of tomatoes per person.

Tomatoes were the product with the greatest impact on the increase in the cost of the food basket. Prices nearly doubled compared to May 2025, rising 99.2% year-over-year. As a result, tomatoes accounted for 53.7% of the annual increase in the rural food basket and 34.7% of the increase in urban areas.

Meanwhile, potatoes ranked as the second-largest contributor to food price pressures, behind tomatoes and food consumed away from home. Potato prices increased 57.3% year-over-year and 12.7% month-over-month in May, making the crop the single largest contributor to overall inflation during the month. Compared to the end of 2025, potato prices have accumulated a 79% increase.

These price increases contributed to food basket costs rising faster than Mexico's annual inflation rate of 3.94%. In May, the urban food basket reached MX$2,597.3 per person per month, up 6.9% from a year earlier, while the rural food basket climbed to MX$1,960.23, representing a 6.3% annual increase.

Drivers Behind the Price Increase

The increase in prices for both products is the result of multiple factors. In the case of tomatoes, higher prices have largely been driven by reduced availability. Sinaloa, Mexico's leading tomato-producing state, recorded a 16% decline in planted area, while total losses in the winter harvest, considering both acreage and yields, are estimated at up to 25%. Much of this reduction stems from uncertainty surrounding exports caused by US tariff measures.

The situation was further compounded by phytosanitary challenges, including late blight (Phytophthora infestans), as well as limited water availability, both of which affected crop yields. At the same time, reduced production in Florida, caused by drought conditions in late 2025 and a freeze at the beginning of 2026, contributed to higher tomato prices in both the United States and Mexico.

David Branch, Executive Director,Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, expects supply conditions to stabilize and prices to ease slightly in the coming months. However, he considers it unlikely that production will increase enough to trigger a substantial decline in prices.

Analyses conducted by Mexico's Directorate General for Agrifood and Fisheries Information Services (DGSIAP) indicate that, under normal agroecological conditions, inflationary pressures should begin to ease in upcoming months as harvests from Baja California and Sonora enter the market.

For potatoes, recent price behavior also reflects a combination of factors that reduced supply and increased pressure on the market. In key production areas in northwestern Mexico, particularly the Mayo and Yaqui valleys, a reduction in accumulated chill hours affected crop development and lowered average yields from 40 metric tons per hectare to approximately 25 metric tons per hectare.

While weather has always influenced food prices, increasingly frequent episodes of extreme heat, drought, and flooding are placing household budgets on the front lines of climate change. As these conditions intensify, economists expect food price volatility to become more common, increasing the risk that agricultural price spikes evolve into a more persistent source of inflation.

In the United States, tariffs on Mexican imports have become another factor supporting higher prices, as roughly 90% of the country's fresh tomato supply comes from Mexico. As a result, wholesale tomato prices reached their highest levels in 25 years, according to David Magaña, Senior Analyst for Fruits and Vegetables, Rabobank.

Moreover, as US consumers sought lower-cost alternatives, prices for other salad tomato varieties and cherry tomatoes also increased. Processing tomatoes, which are used in shelf-stable products such as canned tomatoes, tomato paste, and sauces, are harvested later in the summer in California's Central Valley and have not been affected, according to Magaña.

Tomato Trade Under Pressure

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Mexican tomato exports will fall to 1.8 million metric tons in 2026, a 7% decline from the previous year. At the same time, national tomato production is expected to decrease by 9%, from 2.8Mt to 2.5Mt. The area planted with tomatoes is also projected to shrink by 11%, from 42,112 ha in 2025 to 38,000 ha this year.

Jorge Esteve, President, Mexico's National Agricultural Council (CNA), said the measures have affected a sector that spent decades building a close commercial relationship with the United States. According to Esteve, the combination of economic and climatic factors resulted in an approximately 20% decline in available supply during the last production season.

He added that the situation has increased US imports of Canadian tomatoes. By his estimates, Mexico lost between 10% and 12% of its share of the US tomato market, while Canadian exports increased by roughly 25%.

Esteve attributed part of that shift to the fact that Canada does not face the same tariffs as Mexico and benefits from support mechanisms that reduce production costs, particularly for electricity and water. He added that tomatoes, along with other seasonal crops, are expected to be part of discussions during the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).