United States Keeps Antidumping Duties on Mexican Tomatoes

The United States will maintain antidumping duties on fresh Mexican tomatoes after the USITC found insufficient changes in market conditions to justify revoking the order, keeping pressure on Mexico’s highly export-dependent tomato sector. The measure comes as Mexico faces lower tomato production and exports amid reduced cultivation, adverse weather, and currency appreciation, while domestic prices have also faced volatility. The Mexican government is responding with producer financing and market-stabilization measures aimed at supporting agricultural production, food security and the competitiveness of tomato producers.

Mexico’s tomato sector faces continued pressure as the United States maintains antidumping duties on fresh Mexican tomatoes, reinforcing challenges for producers and exporters. Meanwhile, weaker production prospects and domestic market pressures are prompting the Mexican government to strengthen financial support for the sector.

As part of its changed circumstances review, the US International Trade Commission (USITC) determined that there were not sufficient changes to justify revoking the antidumping duty order on fresh Mexican tomatoes, ruling out the possibility of removing the duties. The decision keeps the antidumping order that took effect in July, 2025, after the US Department of Commerce terminated the 2019 suspension agreement. The mechanism had prevented the formal imposition of an antidumping order on Mexican tomato exports for years.

The order establishes different antidumping rates depending on the producer or exporter. While some companies have specific margins ranging from 2.81% to 273.43%, the 17.09% rate applies to the “all others” category, covering the vast majority of Mexican producers.

Mexico Remains Highly Dependent on the US Market

The measure represents significant pressure on Mexico’s tomato sector given its heavy dependence on the United States as its main export market. Between 2019 and 2025, US imports from Mexico increased 8% in volume, from 3.6 billion lb to 3.9 billion lb. In value terms, the increase was 17.4%.

In 2025 alone, the United States imported nearly 4 billion lb of fresh tomatoes from Mexico, valued at US$2.4 billion. As a result, Mexico accounted for 61.5% of apparent US consumption by volume and 56.8% by value. Mexican tomatoes also represented 88.3% of all US tomato imports that year.

By contrast, US producers reduced their share of apparent consumption, from 33.2% in 2019 to 30.3% in 2025. This trend was one of the factors considered in the USITC’s decision. The Commission determined that arguments from Mexican producers regarding changes in market conditions did not demonstrate that the market had undergone a sufficiently significant transformation to justify removing the measure.

Among the arguments presented in support of revoking the order were changes in US consumer preferences, increased greenhouse production in the United States, investments by US producers in Mexico, growing imports of greenhouse tomatoes from Canada, and structural challenges facing open-field producers in both the United States and Mexico.

However, the Commission concluded that many of these factors were already present in previous investigations and represented the continuation of existing trends rather than a substantial change in market conditions. In addition, Mexico continued to hold a larger share of US consumption than it did at the close of the original investigation.

Lower Production and Exports Expected in 2026

With the antidumping measure remaining in place, Mexico’s tomato sector faces a weaker production outlook for 2026. Tomato production is expected to decline 9% in 2026 to 2.55Mt, affected by the US antidumping duty and the appreciation of the peso against the US dollar, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The agency expects the decline in production to contribute to a 7% decrease in Mexican tomato exports, which are projected to reach 1.8Mt in 2026.

As part of its outlook, the USDA estimates that Mexico’s tomato cultivation area will total 38,000 ha in 2026, representing an 11% decline from 2025. Adverse weather conditions affecting crops are also contributing to the lower production outlook.

In Sinaloa, Mexico’s largest tomato-producing state, drought conditions at the beginning of the year forced many producers to reduce their planted area before the season began, contributing to some tomato shortages. Lower harvests caused by episodes of unusually cold weather and phytosanitary problems also pushed up domestic prices.

During the first week of April, the price of a kilogram of tomatoes exceeded MX$55 (US$3.24) at various wholesale markets and supermarkets. This was more than double the approximately MX$25 recorded a year earlier.

However, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) said the increase was driven by seasonal factors and that prices would moderate as spring harvests reached the market. In this regard, during the first half of July, INEGI reported that tomatoes were among the 10 consumer goods and services that recorded the largest price declines, falling 13.18%.

Mexico Allocates MX$248 Million in Producer Loans

Mexico’s domestic response to the tomato sector’s challenges includes financial support for producers as part of the National Agreement for the Organization of Tomato Production, Supply, Marketing, and Fair Pricing.

According to SADER, more than MX$248.2 million was allocated between June 3 and Aug. 14 to provide 48 loans to tomato producers. The voluntary agreement was signed by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and representatives of producers, marketers, wholesale markets, and supermarkets, with the aim of stabilizing the market and establishing measures to support producers.

As part of the initiative, the Trust Funds for Rural Development (FIRA) have processed loan applications from tomato producers, who have received financing through various banks, institutions and financial intermediaries. The distribution of financing has prioritized key regions across Mexico to support food security. Baja California, Sonora, the State of Mexico, and Oaxaca lead the first round of support, aimed at maintaining local production and supporting the economies of thousands of farming families.