US Tariff on Tomatoes Sparks Price Hikes, Trade Tensions

The new 20.91% tariff on Mexican tomatoes, set to take effect on July 14, 2025, is expected to drive up prices for US consumers. The measure threatens to disrupt the tomato value chain that spans both countries and supports thousands of jobs. 

The National Agricultural Council (CNA) warns that the tariff on Mexican tomatoes will lead to an immediate 11.5% increase in the prices of staple products such as salads, sauces, and ketchup for US consumers. Meanwhile, the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) warns that the price of the vegetable in the United States could rise by as much as 50% due to the new tariff.

The CNA calls for the preservation of certainty, rule-based trade, and North American agri-food integration, expressing its support for President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration for its firm defense of the interests of Mexico’s agri-food sector against this measure

These duties would make several commonly used products more expensive for consumers in the United States. In April 2025, the average price per kilogram of tomatoes in the United States stood at US$2.60. The tariff would mean an increase of US$0.55 per pound, bringing the price to US$3.21, reports Financial Times. Retailers are unlikely to be able to absorb these costs indefinitely and will eventually pass them on to final consumers.

The tariff, announced on Monday by the US Department of Commerce, will kick start on July 14, 2025, as reported by MBN. US authorities claim that this is an antidumping action in response to complaints from domestic growers who allege that Mexican producers sell tomatoes at below-market prices in the United States.

President Sheinbaum states that these are false accusations, emphasizing that there is no government program in Mexico subsidizing tomato production. “What is being sold is simply the production cost,” she stated. She added that US agricultural products are subsidized by their government, placing Mexican producers at a disadvantage.

Sheinbaum also criticized the US government for failing to formally notify Mexico’s administration about the measure, noting that only producers were informed through a law firm based in the United States. “We are waiting for the Mexican government to be officially notified,” she stated during her Tuesday morning press conference.

The proposal to put tariffs on Mexican tomatoes is not new. Over the past 30 years, several agreements have been negotiated to avoid such measures. In 1996, the Florida Tomato Exchange — which accounts for about half of the United States’ fresh-market tomato production — requested an investigation into tomato dumping. This was suspended following the signing of an Antidumping Suspension Agreement that required renewal every five years. The agreement was renewed in 2002 and renegotiated in 2008 and 2013.

In 2018, the Department of Commerce launched a new investigation that led to the termination of the existing agreement and the imposition of a 17.5% tariff on Mexican tomato producers. However, after pressure from Mexican growers, both governments reached a new agreement, which went into effect in September 2019. That agreement was scheduled for review last year.

Mexico now has 90 days to negotiate with the US government. President Sheinbaum expressed confidence in the process: “this review has taken place many times before — and Mexico has always come out on top.”

“In the event that this sanction is applied, Mexican tomatoes will still be exported to the United States because they are irreplaceable,” states Sheinbaum. She adds that no other country can match Mexico’s production volume, quality, proximity, and ability to deliver fresh tomatoes quickly and at a lower cost.

In 2023, sales of fresh or chilled Mexican tomatoes reached US$2.8 billion, with 99.8% of exports destined for the United States, totaling US$2.5 billion, according to the Ministry of Economy. In Mexico, the tomato industry supports about 500,000 jobs across Sinaloa, Sonora, Baja California, the Bajio region, and Western Mexico, according to Germán Gándara, President, Mexican Association of Tomato Producers (AMPAC).

In the United States, the export chain for this product involves over 33,000 growers, 85 packing facilities, and 170 importers, generating over 57,000 jobs, reports the CNA. Additionally, the economic impact of Mexican tomatoes in the United States amounts to US$9.2 billion, with a fiscal contribution of US$1.5 billion, based on data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).