Will USMCA, Deforestation Kill Mexico's Golden Goose?

While the government celebrates Mexico remaining the world’s leading avocado exporter and a strategic player in berries, an uncomfortable reality is advancing quietly: the golden goose is at risk of dying.

In the first months of 2026, at least 2,000 avocado orchards in Michoacan were blocked from exporting to the United States for failing to comply with environmental standards, mainly due to deforestation and illegal land-use change. This is a red flag already costing millions of dollars and could become a structural crisis during the USMCA review.

The Mexican Boom … and Its Dark Side

In 2025, Mexico exported around 1.28–1.31 million tons of avocado, worth more than US$2.7–3.9 billion, mainly to the United States, which absorbs between 80% and 90% of the volume. The sector generates direct employment for nearly 390,000 people, especially in Michoacan, Jalisco, and other western states.

Meanwhile, berries (strawberries, blackberries, raspberries, and blueberries) continue growing strongly. Exports are projected to reach nearly 750,000 tons in 2025–2026, with a strong presence in Michoacan, Jalisco, Sinaloa, and Baja California.

Together, avocados and berries represent one of the greatest success stories of Mexican agriculture over the last two decades. But that success comes with an environmental and social cost that international markets are no longer willing to ignore.

Michoacan’s “Guardian Forestal” system, which uses satellite surveillance and artificial intelligence, has identified thousands of hectares linked to irregular deforestation. As a result, 2,000 orchards were excluded from the US export chain because they failed to comply with ProForest Avocado certification, which requires production free of post-2018 deforestation.

President Claudia Sheinbaum publicly acknowledged in March 2026 the “international concerns” surrounding deforestation and labor compliance in avocados and berries. Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies recently approved a reform requiring verifiable labor and environmental certification for agro-exports, precisely ahead of the USMCA review.

The Other Bomb: Labor Informality

It is not only about forests. Up to 87% of agricultural workers in Mexico operate without formal contracts, social security, or proper labor protections, directly violating the labor and environmental chapters of the USMCA.

The new Velagro platform and the Labor Certificate for Agro-Exports seek to correct this, but many small producers see these requirements as a burden that only large packing companies will be able to absorb.

USMCA 2026 Could Change Everything

The treaty review, scheduled for July 2026, places special attention on Chapters 23 (Labor) and 24 (Environmental). Both the United States, with or without Donald Trump, and Europe increasingly demand “deforestation-free” traceability and verifiable labor conditions.

If Mexico fails to move decisively, the country faces significant risks such as massive orchard blocks, tariffs or additional restrictions, and the loss of market share to competitors like Peru, Chile, or even domestic US producers

The strongest controversy is emerging between small producers and large exporters. Small growers often expanded orchards without the permits or technology required, while large companies have the resources to certify themselves.

There is also tension between state and federal governments. Michoacán has been more aggressive with Guardian Forestal, but a comprehensive national strategy that includes reconversion, irrigation modernization, and real support for formalization is still lacking.

At the same time, environmental groups and agro-exporters remain divided over whether continued expansion can happen without sacrificing forests in the Sierra Madre. And, as the final piece of the puzzle, consumers are beginning to ask whether they are willing to pay more for a “sustainable” avocado or berry.

What Comes Next?

Under this scenario, three possible outcomes for 2027 are already emerging.

In the best-case scenario, the industry accelerates orchard certification, invests in reconversion, and receives government support through infrastructure and formalization programs. Mexico consolidates its leadership as a responsible supplier.

The realistic scenario — and probably the most likely — involves partial progress. Between 10% and 20% of avocado and berry exports could be lost, heavily impacting regions that depend on these industries. Domestic prices rise and market concentration increases in favor of larger players.

And if we think negatively, the worst-case scenario would involve widespread non-compliance triggering strong restrictions from the United States, unleashing an economic crisis across Michoacan, Jalisco, and Sinaloa, along with massive job losses and rural migration.

Are we willing to sacrifice part of the current boom to ensure the long-term survival of the sector, or will we continue expanding orchards at the expense of forests until the market closes its doors?

Avocados and berries have been the great success story of Mexican agriculture. Now it depends on producers, packing companies, and authorities to ensure this story does not end as a warning of what should never have been done.