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Analysis

Forecast of Light Vehicle Production During 2014-2019

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:17

The production levels of the top ten OEMs in Mexico look set to increase steadily until the end of the decade with no major changes in current positioning. With BMW, Nissan Infiniti, and Mercedes-Benz not due to begin production until 2019 no new entrants will change the present state of play before then. Audi will begin production at its new Puebla plant in 2016 and expects to double production levels there by the end of the decade, positioning it as the ninth largest in-country producer.

Japanese OEM Nissan will continue to top the market, churning out leading models including the March, of which it produces one vehicle every minute at its mammoth and expanding plant in Aguascalientes. Despite producing the majority of its vehicles for export, Nissan also sells the most cars in the country, producing the Tsuru solely for sale to the Mexican market. In 2017, production of the OEM’s premium Infiniti line will be added in partnership with Mercedes-Benz. US giant General Motors produces the second most cars in Mexico and will continue to ramp up production levels, although major recent investments will focus on transmission production, adding a stamping press unit, and the rolling out of the GM OnStar service throughout the country. While Nissan will increase production by almost 300,000 units, GM will produce just over 100,000 additional units by the close of the decade.

Fiat is expected to steadily drop output of its Fiat 500 model in Mexico, which it currently produces for the Americas and China, bringing its Mexico production to zero by 2017. When the next generation version Fiat 500 hits the market in 2015 production will be moved entirely from Mexico to Poland, where units for the European market are made. The move will add volume to the European market production, which is in decline, and free up Chrysler in Mexico to produce more vehicles for the North American market. Chrysler will increase its production in Mexico by almost 200,000 vehicles by the end of the decade.

Asian OEMs Honda, Mazda, and Toyota will all escalate outlay steadily in Mexico over the rest of the decade, with production levels increasing 100,000-150,000, displaying a similar pattern to German producer Volkswagen. US elder Ford will actually decrease production levels steadily over the next four years, due to the removal of its pickup production from its plant in Escobedo to Ohio. The relocation of the production of its medium duty F-650 and F-750 lines to Ohio is aimed at rescuing operations at that plant following the cessation of production of the Ecoline, which currently takes place there. Growth will once again be seen at the end of the decade for Ford Mexico, however, according to its predicted production levels.

When it comes to internal market dominance in 2013 the catalogue of the top ten brands is dominated by three OEMs. GM’s Chevrolet takes up two positions, with its Aveo model the most purchased car in the country and the Spark coming it at number six. A whopping five Nissan units dominate the list; the Versa, Tsuru, Sentra, Tilda, and Largo models. The Volkswagen Classic Jetta and Nuevo Jetta take up the remaining two spaces on the list, coming in at second and fifth place respectively.