Guanajuato Auto Production Forecast to Grow 11.6% in 2026

Guanajuato’s automotive industry is poised to maintain its leading role in Mexico and North America in 2026, according to the latest Mapeo de la Industria Automotriz en Guanajuato report by Cluster Industrial B2B. The report projects production of 979,613 light vehicles in 2026, reflecting an 11.64% increase compared with the 877,463 units produced in 2025. The whitepaper provides a strategic overview of the state’s automotive ecosystem, including vehicle production, exports, auto parts manufacturing, investment flows, electromobility development, and supplier networks.

The state hosts eight original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and numerous component manufacturing facilities, with an installed capacity of 1.11 million light vehicles per year. Guanajuato’s automotive sector encompasses 2,549 companies across 26 municipalities and directly employs more than 110,000 workers, underscoring its role as one of the country’s most important industrial clusters. In 2024, the industry accounted for approximately 50% of the state’s GDP and nearly 80% of total exports, which reached US$24.537 billion. “Guanajuato represents a strategic hub for North American automotive manufacturing, offering a robust industrial base and deeply integrated regional supply chains,” the report states. This concentration of manufacturing capacity has positioned the state as a key node in Mexico’s export-oriented automotive corridor in the Bajio region.

Vehicle production in 2025 remained strong despite a natural adjustment following the record output of 913,000 units registered in 2024. Models driving growth include the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups, Toyota Tacoma and Tacoma HEV, Honda HR-V, and Acura ADX, reflecting the diversity of vehicle segments produced in the state. Export performance further reinforces Guanajuato’s relevance in the region, with 768,643 vehicles shipped abroad in 2025 and a projected increase to 805,477 units in 2026, primarily to the United States, Mexico’s largest automotive export market. “The export profile of Guanajuato positions it as a key manufacturing platform aligned with USMCA rules of origin and regional content requirements, strengthening its integration into the North American automotive supply chain,” the report notes.

Guanajuato also ranks second nationally in auto parts production, representing 13.7% of Mexico’s total output between January and November 2025. The state produced US$15.007 billion in auto parts during that period, with forecasts of US$16.401 billion for full-year 2025 and US$16.762 billion for 2026. Key specialties include electrical and electronic components, transmissions, interior assemblies, and engine parts, highlighting a diversified and technologically sophisticated manufacturing base. 

The report also emphasizes the industry’s gradual transition toward electrified mobility. Guanajuato hosts 26 battery and capacitor suppliers, 18 electric drivetrain manufacturers, seven power control unit (PCU) companies, 13 thermal management system suppliers, and 58 additional providers specializing in electric vehicle components. In 2025, 6,101 electrified vehicles were sold in the state, with sales projected to reach 6,925 units in 2026, particularly driven by plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs). 

Investment activity further underscores the state’s industrial growth. Between the first and fourth quarters of 2025, Guanajuato attracted US$446.52 million in investment across 42 direct automotive projects, generating 4,157 jobs and more than 454,505 square meters of industrial construction. Additionally, five industrial park and infrastructure projects secured US$97.12 million in investment.