Leadership in Times of Volatility and Constant Uncertainty

For years, we spoke about VUCA environments: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. It was a useful way to describe a world in which plans stopped being fulfilled exactly as they had been designed. Later, we began to speak about BANI: brittle, anxious, nonlinear, and incomprehensible. It was no longer enough to accept that the environment was changing; it became necessary to recognize that many apparently solid systems could break, that people were living with anxiety, that small causes could generate enormous consequences, and that not everything could be explained clearly. 

Today, the concept of PLUTO has also emerged: a polarized, liquid, unilateral, tense, and omnirelational world. In other words, an environment where decisions must be made by considering where they will have direct consequences, while it is also critical and indispensable to contemplate the system as a whole, identifying the influence of geopolitical tensions, fragmented interests, interdependent relationships, and changes that do not respect borders.

These are not distant academic concepts. We see them every day. The pandemic revealed the fragility of global supply chains. The war in Ukraine altered energy markets, food, inflation, and industrial decisions. Tensions in the Middle East have affected critical maritime routes. Artificial intelligence is transforming entire industries, professions, business models, and even global energy demand.

In this context, in what is already our reality, companies no longer compete only against other companies; they compete against the speed of change, against the obsolescence of their own certainties, and against their ability to adapt before the environment forces them to do so.

Leadership, then, cannot simply mean giving instructions, monitoring progress, and demanding results. In our current environment, leadership implies accepting that, as a leader, I do not have all the answers. It implies understanding that the diversity of my team — their knowledge, habits, tastes, proposals — brings with it a valuable source of information that reduces uncertainty in the final decision. This requires understanding, valuing, strengthening, and channeling the individuality of each person toward a collective result. Each member of a team is a world of their own: they have emotions, needs, interests, aspirations, fears, culture, history, perspective, and circumstances. That is why leadership in these times cannot be homogeneous. It must adapt to the environment, but also to the person.

In several of my lectures in the TEC Beyond program — an innovation program for senior management at Tecnológico de Monterrey — I have addressed this topic by opening conversations around five elements that I consider essential to strengthen for effective leadership.

The first element to strengthen is psychological safety. In uncertain times, no one has all the answers. If people are afraid to speak up, question, acknowledge mistakes, or propose ideas, the organization loses collective intelligence. Psychological safety does not mean the absence of high standards; it means creating an environment where the truth can be spoken without fear of humiliation or retaliation. It is developed by actively listening, appreciating bad news when it arrives on time, separating honest mistakes from negligence, and demonstrating that disagreement is not disloyalty.

The second element is setting clear expectations. External uncertainty must not become internal confusion. When the environment is volatile, people need to know what is expected of them, what the priorities are, what decisions they are empowered to make, and how success will be measured. Clarity reduces anxiety, prevents friction, and enables autonomy. To develop it, the leader must translate strategy into concrete objectives, repeat important messages, verify understanding, and distinguish between what is negotiable and what is not.

The third element is communicating a purpose. In difficult times, people can tolerate effort, pressure, and discomfort if they understand what it is all for. Purpose connects daily work with something larger than the immediate task. It is not about empty inspirational phrases, but about explaining why what we do matters, whom we serve, what impact we seek, and what collective value we want to generate. A well-communicated purpose provides direction when the path is not fully defined.

The fourth element is innovating, reinventing oneself, and pursuing continuous adaptation. In a PLUTO environment, waiting to have all the information can be riskier than moving forward with reasonable hypotheses. Adapting is not improvising without method; it is experimenting, learning quickly, and correcting course. To strengthen this capability, leaders must divide large problems into manageable parts, distinguish what is complicated from what is complex, identify what remains stable, and accept the discomfort of not knowing. The organization that learns faster than its environment increases its chances of survival.

The fifth element is developing emotional intelligence. In uncertainty, emotions do not disappear; they intensify. Fear, frustration, anxiety, and fatigue influence the quality of decisions. An emotionally intelligent leader recognizes their own reactions, regulates their behavior, and understands the emotional state of their team. This does not mean being permissive, but rather being human and conscious. It is developed through reflection, feedback, pauses before reacting, well-prepared difficult conversations, and the ability to name what is happening without dramatizing it.

There are also aspects that must be actively managed. One of the most important is the loneliness of leadership. Leading can be profoundly lonely because leaders often carry incomplete information, difficult decisions, and tensions that they cannot fully share with their team. But if the leader is not well, their team will hardly be well. Taking care of oneself is not selfishness; it is responsibility. Managing loneliness means building trusted networks, seeking mentors, creating spaces for reflection, taking care of physical and emotional health, and recognizing that asking for support is also a form of strength.

Finally, there are two forces that must be controlled because they damage leadership in uncertain times: authoritarianism and ego. Authoritarianism may seem efficient in a crisis, but it often impoverishes decision-making. It silences voices, reduces learning, and generates superficial obedience. Ego, for its part, leads the leader to believe that they must always be right, know everything, or be the center of the solution. Both block adaptation. They are controlled through humility, data, feedback, diversity of perspectives, and one constant question: am I defending the collective result, or my need to be in control?

Leading in times of uncertainty is not about eliminating volatility. It is about creating the conditions for people to move forward within it. It is about accepting that absolute certainty may be an illusion — as Voltaire rightly said: “Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position, certainty an absurd one” — but that clarity, purpose, trust, adaptation, and humanity remain possible decisions. Today’s leader is not the one who promises there will be no storm; it is the one who helps the team understand the wind, adjust the sails, and keep navigating with meaning.