Mexico Cargo Theft Drops 46% as Risks Shift Regions

Cargo theft targeting transport operators in Mexico fell by 46% in 2025, totaling 6,263 cases compared with 11,662 in 2019, according to the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System. Authorities attribute the decline to the Balam strategy, a system designed to enable real-time coordination between drivers and security forces. The model prioritizes rapid information exchange and operational response. 

Rodolfo Blancas Osorio, a National Guard colonel, said the strategy is built on immediate data transmission to deter theft and improve recovery rates. “With this flow of information, it is possible to inhibit theft or recover the unit through this joint effort,” he said. The system allows drivers to send their location instantly through a mobile application, triggering coordinated responses from nearby patrol units. 

Real-time Coordination Reshapes Enforcement Model

The Balam strategy integrates three institutional mechanisms focused on highway security and communication. Its core component operates through a command-and-control center, where incidents are monitored and responses are coordinated. Drivers can activate alerts via a mobile module, transmitting geolocation data directly to authorities. This enables patrol units closest to the incident to respond with greater speed and precision, supported by GPS-equipped vehicles and aerial surveillance capabilities.

A second mechanism, known as LICA, facilitates communication between private-sector operators and authorities. Through messaging platforms, companies can share real-time updates, including vehicle data and incident reports. “The goal is to ensure that information flows quickly so authorities can act,” Blancas said. Monitoring centers operated by logistics firms also contribute by continuously updating coordinates and sharing movement data.

Despite these advances, cargo theft remains highly concentrated in specific regions. In 2025, the State of Mexico recorded 3,114 cases, followed by Puebla with 609 and San Luis Potosi with 419. Authorities note that a limited number of states account for a disproportionate share of incidents, underscoring the importance of targeted enforcement strategies.

Cargo theft is also increasing along access routes to the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA), reflecting shifts in logistics flows. Incidents are concentrated on the México-Pachuca highway, connections to the Circuito Exterior Mexiquense, and feeder roads serving municipalities such as Zumpango and Tecámac. Industry groups report that these routes have become critical last-mile corridors, increasing exposure to theft risks.

Data from the Observatorio Nacional Ciudadano show that in Zumpango, investigations for various crimes rose from 4,980 in 2020 to 7,128 in 2025. Vehicle theft cases also increased during the same period. Transport operators report deteriorating security conditions. “There was theft before, but now it has increased significantly; there is no surveillance,” said a transport union member, pointing to specific road segments as high-risk zones.

Cargo theft patterns also reflect concentration by corridor and method. The Mexico–Querétaro highway accounts for 22% of incidents, followed by Córdoba–Puebla with 19%. In 71% of cases, criminals use signal-jamming devices to disable tracking systems. Theft events are concentrated during nighttime hours, particularly between 7:00 p.m. and midnight, as well as in early morning periods. Recovery rates can reach up to 95% when alerts are issued within the first 30 minutes.

Authorities continue to report high-value recoveries, including cargo worth tens of millions of pesos, highlighting both the scale of theft and enforcement capacity. Industry groups link the increase in incidents to the relocation of cargo operations from the Mexico City International Airport to AIFA, which has altered traffic patterns and created new risk concentrations.

Regional Variation Underscores Persistent Exposure

While some corridors show increased risk, other regions report improvements. In Puebla, cargo theft declined by 23% during the first two months of 2026, with 206 reported cases compared with 269 in the same period of 2025. Despite this reduction, incidents continue to occur daily, indicating persistent exposure. Transport operators still face an average of up to three thefts per day.

Economic losses from cargo theft across Mexico exceed MX$7 billion (US$386 million), according to the Mexican Association of Private Security and Satellite Industry Companies. The organization links theft to structural and external factors, including economic pressure, cybercrime, and organized crime activity. “Cargo theft is influenced by global risks; in Mexico it is linked to the economic crisis, social erosion, cybercrime, and drug trafficking,” said Raymundo Mancera Sandoval, President, AMESIS.

Although official data show declines, authorities and industry groups stress that the problem remains persistent and structurally complex. The Ministry of Security and Citizen Protection reported a 28.8% decrease in cargo theft between January and October 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier. However, more than 5,200 incidents were recorded during that timeframe, with most involving violence.