Mexico Heavy Vehicle Sales Drop 46.3% in 2025

Mexico’s heavy vehicle industry entered 2026 under pressure after domestic sales contracted 46.3% in 2025, according to ANPACT, the national manufacturers’ association. The group warned that an aging fleet, constrained financing conditions and rising imports of used US trucks pose structural risks to the sector’s recovery. The figures were presented within a broader industry outlook focused on demand volatility, trade-policy uncertainty and the pace of decarbonization.

Speaking at Automotive Meeting Querétaro 2026 on Feb. 17, Rogelio Arzate, executive president, ANPACT, said the downturn followed a record 2024, when sales reached 58,000 units. In 2025, however, sales fell to approximately 39,800 units. “Based on the uncertainty generated by changes in North American trade policy, we experienced a very significant drop of 46.3%,” he said, noting that transport operators postponed fleet-renewal decisions amid weaker investment expectations.

The Mexican heavy vehicle industry includes roughly 15 brands, 14 of which manufacture locally. It operates 12 assembly plants across 10 states, primarily along the USMCA corridor, including two in Queretaro. ANPACT estimates the sector generates 28,000 direct jobs, 80,000 indirect jobs and up to 250,000 additional positions across the supply chain. It contributes 4.7% of Mexico’s GDP, rising to 6% when supplier activity is included.

One of the most pressing challenges identified by the industry is the sustained influx of used heavy vehicles from the United States. According to ANPACT, for every 100 new units sold domestically, 65 used units are imported — the highest ratio on record. Many of these vehicles exceed one million miles and do not comply with current emissions or safety standards. Arzate said undervaluation practices and the absence of transparent price benchmarks distort competition and undermine environmental and road-safety objectives.

Fleet obsolescence remains a structural concern. The average age of freight and passenger fleets is estimated at 19 years. Federal registries account for approximately 844,000 units, with another 800,000 registered at the state level. ANPACT calculates that more than 337,000 vehicles would need to be scrapped to reduce the average fleet age by 10 years. Despite the availability of Euro 6 technology since 2024 — which reduces pollutant emissions by up to 90% — limited access to credit continues to constrain modernization efforts.

Looking ahead, ANPACT projects wholesale sales of around 39,000 units and retail sales of approximately 42,000 units in 2026, contingent on trade conditions in North America. Production and exports declined 34.8% and 28.6%, respectively, in 2025. The association emphasized that nearshoring and deeper integration of tier 2 and tier 3 suppliers could provide medium-term opportunities, alongside growth in telematics and advanced safety systems.

On the technology front, diesel-powered units still account for 98.19% of the national fleet, while electric vehicles represent just 0.16%. “We are not going directly to electromobility. We call it decarbonization,” Arzate said, describing a gradual, multi-technology transition influenced by energy infrastructure constraints and cost considerations.

According to the Administrative Registry of the Heavy Vehicle Automotive Industry (RAIAVP) published by INEGI, January 2026 performance continued to reflect market weakness. Wholesale sales fell from 2,608 units in January 2025 to 1,676 units in January 2026. Production dropped from 14,108 units to 6,793 units, while exports declined from 10,985 to 5,076 units year over year.

Guillermo Rosales, president, Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors, linked the downturn to macroeconomic headwinds, including 13 consecutive months of contraction in fixed investment. “Among the elements increasing uncertainty is the ongoing adjustment of US trade policy as part of the USMCA review or renegotiation,” he said.

Industry representatives reported that approximately 6,000 jobs have been lost, equivalent to about 20% of the sector’s national workforce, as plants face margin compression and lower production volumes. Alejandro Osorio, ANPACT’s director of public affairs and communications, described the importation of used US units as a longstanding structural distortion. In 2025, 39,833 used heavy vehicles entered Mexico — reinforcing the ratio of roughly 65 used units for every 100 new vehicles sold domestically.

Current legislation permits the importation of used vehicles between eight and 10 years old at a 10% tariff. The industry argues that this rate incentivizes the acquisition of older foreign units rather than domestically produced vehicles. To protect employment, stimulate domestic production and strengthen supply chains, ANPACT has requested that authorities raise the tariff to 50%. Rosales said he met in early February with Mexico’s finance minister, Édgar Amador, to seek support for the proposed adjustment.