Mexico Heavy Vehicle Sales Surge 45.5% in June Rebound

Mexico’s heavy-duty vehicle industry recorded synchronized growth across production, exports, and domestic sales in June 2026, reversing a downward trend that lasted between 17 and 18 months. Data released by the INEGI, alongside statements from industrial groups, attribute the monthly expansion to a gradual recovery in the United States market, domestic fleet renewals stimulated by federal tax incentives, and transportation demand generated by the FIFA World Cup.

According to INEGI’s Administrative Registry of the Heavy Vehicle Automotive Industry (RAIAVP), domestic wholesale sales led the expansion, surging 45.5% year-over-year to 3,278 units, compared to the 2,253 units sold in June 2025. Retail sales rose 3.9% year-over-year to 3,194 units. Within the retail segment, goods-carrying cargo vehicles grew by 14.97% to 2,796 units.

Manufacturing and export metrics also shifted positive during the month. Heavy vehicle production reached 15,262 units, representing a 7.6% increase compared to June 2025 and an improvement over the 14,543 units assembled in May 2026. Exports rose 3.2% year-over-year to 12,730 units. The ANPACT noted that the concurrent growth of these four primary indicators had not occurred since August 2024.

“The heavy vehicle sector in Mexico has closed the month of June 2026 with clear signs of recovery, breaking previous negative trends. The monthly production reached 15,262 units, which represents an increase of 7.6% compared to June 2025 and an improvement compared to the 14,543 units registered in May of the same year,” said Rogelio Arzate, executive president, ANPACT.

Industry representatives pointed to two primary domestic drivers behind the June acceleration: the federal government's fiscal stimulus package and localized demand from the World Cup. Under the "Plan México" initiative introduced by the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum, the federal government established a MX$2 billion (US$114.09 million) accelerated depreciation program. The mechanism allows buyers to complete the tax deduction for a new heavy vehicle within one year instead of the standard four-year period.

ANPACT and the AMDA confirmed that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy have approved multiple projects under the program. Approximately half of the allocated MX$2 billion has already been committed within the first two months of its launch. Guillermo Rosales, executive president, AMDA, expressed expectations that the modernization fund, combined with corporate fleet replacement cycles that had remained stagnant since 2025, would sustain performance through the second half of the year.

The World Cup further amplified commercial passenger vehicle sales. In the wholesale market, passenger segment sales rose 72.8% year-over-year, while the cargo segment grew 41.3%. Rogelio Arzate highlighted localized impacts, stating: “The necessity to mobilize people toward the venues of the event, as was the case for the routes between the airport and the center of Guadalajara, driven by the commercialization of specific units for this passenger segment.”

International trade figures showed shifting geographic dynamics. While ANPACT noted a minor recovery in the US, heavy vehicle exports experienced significant growth in secondary markets. Export volumes rose 42% to Canada, 323% to Colombia, 72% to Perú, 42.9% to Guatemala, 133% to Costa Rica, and 114% to El Salvador.

Despite the positive June performance, cumulative figures for the first half of 2026 (H1 2026) remain contracted compared to the same period in 2025. Total H1 retail sales reached 16,072 units, representing a 21.8% decline, amounting to 4,481 fewer vehicles, than in the first six months of 2025. Total H1 production fell 13% to 70,876 units, and cumulative exports decreased 14.5% to 58,260 units. Wholesale sales remained positive for the half, growing 3.1% to 14,979 units.

Cristina Vázquez, coordinator of economic studies, AMDA, noted that June retail sales still sit 23.3% below pre-pandemic levels from June 2019.

Longer-term sector stability remains tied to upcoming trade negotiations. ANPACT expressed concern regarding the US government's announcement that it will not renew the USMCA under its current terms. The industry group emphasized that maintaining the existing rules of origin is vital for supply chains.

“The positive results observed in wholesale sales during June confirm the capacity of the industry to respond to the needs of the market and continue driving economic activity. To maintain this trend, it is indispensable to have a framework of certainty that strengthens the productive integration of North America. The USMCA has made the region one of the most competitive manufacturing platforms in the world," Arzate Tapia said.

Arzate clarified that the US announcement initiates a review and dialogue phase rather than terminating the agreement. Currently, Mexican manufacturers operate with a 64% Regional Content Value, with plans to hit the 70% requirement scheduled for 2027. Affiliated companies also comply with the 45% labor content value and regional steel and aluminum requirements.

Domestically, the industry continues to confront market distortions from the import of used commercial vehicles from the United States. According to ANPACT data, for every 100 new heavy vehicles sold in Mexico, an additional 55 undervalued used vehicles enter the country. To counter this, the association is collaborating with the Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit, led by Edgar Amador, and the Subsecretariat of Revenues, led by Carlos Lerma, to establish official reference prices aimed at curbing undervaluation.