Mexico Records 14% Decline in Auto Exports, Extending Slump

Mexico’s automotive exports fell 14% year-on-year in October to US$16.12 billion, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). The contraction marks the sector’s largest annual decline since February and its fourth consecutive monthly drop. The weakness contrasts sharply with Mexico’s overall export performance, which recorded its strongest growth in nearly three years.

INEGI’s October trade report shows total exports reaching US$66.13 billion, a 14.2% annual increase and the highest monthly expansion since January 2023. Despite strong results in non-automotive manufacturing, the automotive industry continues to absorb the impact of US sector-specific tariffs implemented under the administration of President Donald Trump.

INEGI data confirms  a sustained downward trend: automotive exports have declined in eight of the first 10 months of the year. From January to October, the sector contracted between 4.8% and 4.9%, depending on the measurement—its sharpest cumulative decline since 2020. Excluding the pandemic’s unusual distortions, it is the first annual drop since 2016.

Analysts attribute the downturn primarily to tariff measures targeting heavy-duty trucks, buses, and other transport equipment imported into the United States. US-bound automotive exports fell 14% in October, while shipments to other markets decreased 14.1%, INEGI reported.

Monex analysts Janneth Quiroz and Kevin Castro said the figures point to a widening divergence within manufacturing. “The automotive segment registered a contraction of 4.8% so far this year, highlighting the challenges facing Mexican automotive exports under the tariffs currently applied to the industry,” they told EL CEO.

The decline intensified after the US government announced a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks, initially scheduled for Oct. 1 and later postponed to Nov. 1. Analysts noted that the announcement alone altered purchasing behavior. According to Monex, “It is likely that the tariffs in force will remain in the coming months as part of Trump’s negotiation strategy: removing tariffs in exchange for concessions from Mexico in the treaty review.”

Banco Base analysts Gabriela Siller and Jesús López warned that the protectionist trend may persist. “Trump has not abandoned trade protectionism, so new tariffs or more aggressive enforcement of previously announced measures cannot be ruled out,” they said. On Nov. 1, a 10% tariff on bus imports into the United States also took effect.

Heavy-duty truck shipments face heightened risk. As of August, 82.96% of US imports of heavy trucks (HS 8704) originated from Mexico. Banco Base concluded: “With the entry into force of this tariff, a further deterioration is expected in automotive exports to the United States and in the performance of Mexico’s transport-equipment manufacturing industry.”