Mexico Tariffs Slow Chinese Heavy Truck Expansion: AMDA

A combination of a 25% import tariff and tighter federal trade enforcement has slowed the rapid expansion of Chinese heavy-duty commercial trucks in Mexico. According to industry data and executive assessments presented at the AMDA 2026 Commercial Vehicles Forum, these barriers, combined with operational and after-sales shortcomings, have effectively capped the market share of Chinese manufacturers at 15%.

Despite launching aggressive pricing strategies fueled by industrial overcapacity in Asia, newer Chinese entrants have struggled to establish the long-term commercial infrastructure needed to sustain an import-driven expansion. Their initial momentum has collided with a stronger regulatory environment, the protection of domestic manufacturing, and mounting trade and logistical challenges reshaping the North American transportation sector.

The 25% Tariff Barrier and Regulatory Pressure

The primary factor limiting the volume of Chinese trucks entering Mexico is the 25% import tariff, complemented by stricter regulatory oversight. Since the beginning of the year, the Mexican government has systematically tightened trade controls to protect the domestic heavy-vehicle industry from what it considers unfair trade practices, particularly undervalued imports originating from Asia.

Manny Katakis, senior analyst, S&P Global Mobility, said during the forum that inconsistent trade policy is having a significant influence on commercial strategies.

"More than the policies themselves, what is affecting the market is inconsistency and uncertainty," Katakis said, noting that the 15% market share ceiling reflects persistent hesitation among transport operators and fleet buyers.

He also highlighted another structural weakness affecting Chinese manufacturers. "A portion of the problem is related to the irregularity of inventories arriving from China, as many units depend on production surpluses distributed across various international markets," Katakis said.

This supply model prevents fleet operators from securing long-term procurement consistency, while the 25% tariff further erodes the cost advantage traditionally associated with imported surplus inventory.

Infrastructure Gaps Erode Price Advantages

Although Chinese manufacturers have relied on lower upfront prices to attract cost-conscious fleet operators, established OEMs in Mexico continue to maintain a significant competitive advantage through extensive after-sales support networks. Many Chinese truck brands still face limited dealership coverage, constrained inventories of original spare parts, and relatively untested warranty programs.

"The oversupply allows various brands to enter the national market with lower prices in key cargo segments, making it impossible to compete with them directly on the initial cost of the vehicle," said José Ojeda, General Director, PACCAR Financial México.

However, because every day a truck remains out of service generates substantial operational losses for logistics companies, the lack of readily available parts and technical support has discouraged adoption by the country's largest corporate fleets.

Ernesto García, president, AMDA's Truck Committee, said sustainable market expansion is impossible without a reliable technical support infrastructure. He also expressed support for the federal government's trade measures aimed at countering undervalued imports.

A Transport Sector Under Pressure

• The slowdown in Chinese commercial truck imports is unfolding against a broader backdrop of trade uncertainty, secondary-market disruption, and logistics bottlenecks across Mexico.
• Regional economic outlook: S&P Global Mobility recently lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast for Mexico from 1.2% to 0.9%, citing trade volatility and rising operating costs, including diesel prices that have climbed to MX$28 (US$1.62) per liter from an average of MX$25 (US$1.44) in 2025.
• USMCA review: Long-term planning remains constrained by the upcoming review of the USMCA. Katakis said manufacturers are increasingly regionalizing their supply chains to protect operations, while noting that a shift toward separate bilateral agreements remains a plausible scenario.
• Used truck imports: At the same time, the domestic secondary market is facing growing pressure from imports of used trucks from the United States, which surged to nearly 29,000 units in 2024—three times the historical average recorded between 2018 and 2020. The influx contributed to a decline in national tractor-truck sales from approximately 40,000 units in 2024 to 25,250 units in 2025.
• Highway congestion: Fleet productivity has also been affected by infrastructure constraints. Alejandro Gómez, Director of Operations, GRUVER, noted that "what a transport operator used to do 10 years ago from point A to point B in five hours is taking seven hours today" because of increased highway and toll booth congestion.

Despite these challenges, forum participants identified several structural stabilizers, including a gradual recovery in North American heavy-vehicle production and improving order volumes as the industry moves toward the end of 2026.