Mexico Truck Exports Drop 50% After US Tariff

Mexico’s heavy vehicle industry began 2026 facing one of its sharpest contractions in more than a decade after the United States imposed a 25% tariff on Mexican truck exports, cutting production and exports by more than half 50% in key operational indicators and accelerating job losses across the sector. Industry representatives say the downturn reflects the combined impact of new trade barriers and distortions in the domestic market.

Data from INEGI show that heavy truck production fell 52% year over year in January to 6,793 units, while exports dropped 53.8% to 5,076 units. The Mexican Automotive Distributors Association (AMDA) and the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor-Trailer Producers (ANPACT) said these figures represent the lowest January levels in at least 16 years. January marked the first full month under the new US tariff regime.

Domestic demand has also weakened significantly. Wholesale sales declined 36% year over year to 1,676 units, down from 2,600 units in January 2025. Retail sales fell 46.3% to 2,073 units. The synchronized decline across production, exports and sales points to a structural slowdown rather than a temporary adjustment.

Alejandro Osorio, ANPACT’s director of public affairs, said the contraction has led to the loss of roughly 6,000 manufacturing jobs, or about 20% of the industry’s workforce. The job cuts reflect cumulative effects observed throughout 2025 and into early 2026, particularly in plants integrated into North American supply chains.

“The outlook for the heavy vehicle industry is extremely negative,” said Guillermo Rosales, president, AMDA, during a press conference. He attributed the downturn primarily to the 25% US tariff on Mexican vehicles and to rising imports of used trucks from the United States. Rosales called for stricter controls on used heavy-vehicle imports as an immediate mitigation measure.

Industry groups are proposing that Mexico increase the tariff on used US heavy trucks from 10% to 50%. Currently, vehicles between eight and 10 years old can enter Mexico under a 10% duty. According to AMDA, the influx of lower-priced used units is directly competing with domestically assembled new trucks and exacerbating the industry’s contraction.

The January collapse follows a difficult 2025, which industry leaders described as comparable only to the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Production last year fell 34.8% to 138,954 units, down from 213,241 units in 2024. Exports declined 28.6% to 113,931 units, compared with 159,466 units the previous year, according to ANPACT.

Domestic commercialization mirrored the downturn. Wholesale sales in 2025 totaled 30,673 units, compared with 67,704 units in 2024. Retail sales dropped to 39,836 units from 58,293 units, a 31.6% decline. Rogelio Arzate, president of ANPACT, said output levels were the lowest recorded since the pandemic period.

Rosales argued that macroeconomic variables such as exchange rates and interest rates do not fully account for the severity of the contraction. “Economic indicators do not explain the magnitude of the drop experienced by the heavy vehicle industry, which has only been surpassed by the pandemic,” he said. He described 2025 as “catastrophic,” noting that one in every three units failed to find a buyer in the domestic market.

The industry’s structural dependence on the US market has amplified the impact of the tariff. More than 90% of Mexico’s heavy truck production is exported to the United States. As of Nov. 1, the 25% tariff on imported trucks took effect under Section 232, directly affecting Mexico’s position as the leading exporter of tractor-trailers to the US and the fourth-largest exporter of cargo and passenger vehicles globally.

The American Trucking Associations previously estimated that a 25% tariff on Mexican trucks could increase the price of a new tractor in the United States by up to US$35,000. Higher acquisition costs could alter fleet purchasing strategies and disrupt integrated North American supply chains.

ANPACT emphasized that the sector complies with USMCA rules of origin, including 64% regional value content, 45% labor value content and 70% requirements for steel and aluminum. Under these standards, the industry would otherwise face an average tariff of about 11% when exporting to the United States. The additional 25% duty therefore represents a significant competitiveness shock.

Industry associations have urged policymakers to implement coordinated measures to stabilize employment and production. Rosales said any increase in tariffs on used imports should be part of a broader industrial policy aligned with the objectives of “Plan México” promoted by President Claudia Sheinbaum, aimed at strengthening domestic production and reducing import dependence.

Executives said they will continue monitoring production and export data to evaluate medium-term effects on investment and labor. For a sector deeply embedded in regional logistics and manufacturing networks, the current downturn highlights the vulnerability of heavy vehicle production to tariff policy, import dynamics and cross-border demand fluctuations.

As Miguel Ogazón, technical and engineering director, ANPACT, wrote in MBN: “The heavy-duty vehicle industry, both passenger and freight, is a structural enabler of economic growth. Its impact on productivity, logistics competitiveness and value chain integration is profound. Everything around us was, at some point, transported by a heavy vehicle.”