US Policies Could Send Truckers Back to Mexico, Filling Gaps

Recent US immigration policies under President Donald Trump could prompt a significant return of truck drivers to Mexico, potentially alleviating the country's current deficit of over 56,000 operators in the cargo transport sector. The National Chamber of Cargo Transportation (CANACAR), Mexico's trucking association, has been closely monitoring the situation.

"Currently, operators working in the southern US border areas are not finding it attractive to work in Mexico," said Israel Delgado, vice president for the Northwest Region, CANACAR. According to the association, the allure of working in Mexico has diminished for drivers employed near the US-Mexico border.

Border drivers often receive payment in US dollars, which is particularly appealing due to the higher commissions generated by large cargo volumes. However, stricter US immigration policies may encourage some drivers, particularly those operating irregularly, to consider returning to Mexico.

"There are many operators with B1 visas working irregularly in the United States. With current migration rules, a large return of drivers to Mexico is possible, which could help address the labor shortage here," Delgado Vallejo added.

Enrique González Muñoz, director general, Express MG and former president of CANACAR, noted that deported migrants might seek employment in various sectors, with the cargo transport industry offering a key opportunity.

"Migration policies and deportations could create a labor pool for the cargo transport sector," González said. However, he emphasized that external factors, including trade tariffs, could influence the return of drivers.

Both Delgado and González expressed concern about the impact of trade tariffs on the trucking industry. Delgado noted that tariffs could disrupt cross-border trade between Mexico and the United States, complicating efforts to integrate returning drivers into the labor market.

"The real question is whether Mexico’s domestic market can absorb the labor force, including drivers returning from the United States, in the face of reduced trade," Delgado stated.

González warned that US tariffs on Mexican goods would create uncertainty for the labor market. A decrease in cross-border trade could lower demand for international cargo transport, potentially affecting job availability.

"If international trade decreases, we will need to boost domestic consumption and production. This could increase the movement of goods via truck transport, partially offsetting the impact on demand," González concluded.