Waymo Aims for 1 Million Weekly US Robotaxi Rides by 2026

Waymo, the autonomous driving unit of Alphabet, is expanding robotaxi operations across the United States, signaling a structural shift in the ride-hailing sector. The company currently provides about 400,000 paid rides each week in several cities and expects to exceed 1 million weekly rides by the end of 2026. Trip volume quadrupled in 2025 as the company expanded fleet capacity and service areas.

Earlier this year, Waymo raised US$16 billion at a valuation of US$126 billion, strengthening its ability to scale operations. Following the funding round, the company announced plans to launch services in Nashville, Washington, D.C., Detroit, Las Vegas, San Diego and Denver. Testing is also underway in several additional markets. Waymo said it expects to operate or test autonomous vehicles in about 20 cities by the end of the year, including its first international deployment.

The expansion of autonomous ride services is beginning to affect drivers who rely on ride-hailing platforms for income. Data from Gridwise Analytics shows drivers in cities where robotaxis operate completed 5.3% fewer trips per hour in 4Q25 compared with the same period a year earlier. Nationwide, the decline was 2.6%. The difference suggests autonomous fleets may be starting to influence driver activity in the markets where they operate.

Driver utilization has also declined in those locations. Gridwise reported that the share of time drivers spent transporting passengers fell 2.5% year over year in cities with autonomous vehicles. Across the United States, utilization declined 2.1% during the same period. While the firm said it cannot directly attribute these changes to robotaxis, the trend appears consistent across multiple markets where autonomous ride services have launched.

Pressure Builds on Human Drivers

In cities with robotaxi operations, drivers are completing fewer rides per hour and spending more time waiting for passengers. The data indicates autonomous fleets are beginning to compete with human drivers for demand in dense urban markets. Although the overall ride-hailing market continues to grow, the distribution of rides is gradually shifting as new autonomous providers enter the sector.

The pattern resembles earlier disruption in urban transportation. When ride-hailing platforms first entered US cities in the early 2010s, they expanded the overall market for on-demand mobility while gradually eroding the economic model of traditional taxi operations. Taxi medallion values declined over time as new ride options increased supply and reduced the scarcity that previously supported medallion pricing.

Rideshare drivers operate under a different structure because they do not own medallions. However, many rely on vehicle loans, insurance payments and maintenance costs tied to gig driving. Gridwise reported that gross pay per trip increased in most cities with autonomous vehicle operations during late 2025. The data does not clarify whether the increase reflects higher passenger fares, platform incentives or changes in trip mix.

At the same time, hourly base pay declined in several large markets including Austin, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Drivers in those cities earned slightly more per ride but completed fewer rides overall. The result is longer working hours to maintain previous income levels.

Autonomous Market Expands Rapidly

Forecasts indicate the autonomous mobility sector will expand rapidly during the coming decade. S&P Global estimates autonomous vehicles will account for about 10% of all US rideshare trips by 2030. The firm projects that driverless and human-operated rideshare services could reach parity by 2041 as autonomous fleets continue to scale across major metropolitan areas.

Cost advantages are expected to drive much of that growth. Analysts estimate robotaxi rides could cost more than 60% less than trips provided by human drivers. Current human-driven rides average about US$3.25 per mile. Autonomous vehicles eliminate driver compensation and reduce operating costs, allowing companies to offer lower fares while maintaining margins.

The price difference could significantly influence rider behavior in competitive urban markets. Lower fares tend to attract more users and expand total ride demand. However, the shift could also redistribute revenue away from human drivers and toward companies that operate autonomous fleets.

The autonomous vehicle market is projected to expand sharply as commercial deployment accelerates. Industry forecasts estimate the sector will reach about US$2.87 trillion in 2031 and US$4.21 trillion in 2032. Semi-autonomous vehicles are expected to generate roughly US$2.33 trillion of that value, while fully autonomous vehicles could account for approximately US$1.88 trillion.

Transportation applications currently dominate the sector. Analysts estimate mobility services, including ride-hailing and logistics, represent about 65% of the total autonomous vehicle market. Companies are prioritizing these segments because fleet-based services allow faster commercialization and higher vehicle utilization compared with private ownership models.

Fleet deployment is also expected to grow rapidly. Analysts estimate global autonomous vehicle numbers could reach about 125,660 units by 2030. Research from Wood Mackenzie identifies 2026 as a turning point for the industry, projecting the global autonomous fleet could expand to nearly ten times its current size by the end of the decade.

That expansion could include more than 100,000 robotaxis operating worldwide. Many companies are adopting “transport as a service” models that integrate autonomous vehicles with digital ride-hailing platforms. These systems rely on artificial intelligence to manage routing, fleet coordination and vehicle performance.

Advances in artificial intelligence are accelerating the transition from pilot programs to commercial operations. David Brown, director of integrated energy research, Wood Mackenzie, said the automated electric vehicle sector is reaching a critical stage. “New AI technologies are fundamentally transforming the economics of deployment,” he said.

Companies including Waymo, Tesla, Baidu and XPeng are developing AI-driven perception systems that reduce the time required to deploy autonomous fleets in new cities.