Global Ad Spending to Grow 10.7% in 2024, Reaching US$1 Trillion

Global advertising spending is projected to grow by 10.7% in 2024, reaching US$1.08 trillion, according to a new study by WARC. This marks the strongest growth rate in six years, excluding the post-pandemic recovery in 2021. The study, which aggregates data from 100 markets, revises WARC’s previous forecast from August by 0.2 percentage points.

Advertising investment is expected to continue rising, with a 7.6% increase forecast for 2025 and 7% for 2026. By 2026, the global ad market is projected to reach US$1.24 trillion. Over the past decade, global ad spending has more than doubled, growing 2.8 times faster than global economic output since 2014.

Online media remains the primary driver of ad spend growth. Pure play internet advertising, which includes revenue from platforms like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, is forecast to grow by 14.1% in 2024, totaling US$741.4 billion. This will account for nearly 69% of global ad spending. Social media, the largest segment within online advertising, is expected to reach US$252.7 billion, representing 23.5% of the global market. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok have contributed to a 19.3% growth in the sector this year.

Linear television advertising has also shown resilience, with spending projected to grow by 1.9% to US$153.6 billion in 2024. Events like the Paris Olympics and Euro 2024, along with political campaigns, have bolstered TV ad revenues. However, linear TV’s share of the global market has declined to 14.3%, down from 41.3% in 2013.

Potential challenges in 2025, such as regulatory pressures on major players like Google and TikTo could slow the sector’s growth, as these companies account for a quarter of the ad market outside of China. The US Department of Justice recently ruled that Google holds a monopoly in the search advertising market, which could lead to significant changes, such as the cessation of payments for default search preferences or the sale of its Chrome business.

Despite these uncertainties, WARC maintains its growth forecast for Google at 9.0% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026, projecting a US$231 billion advertising business by then.

The final quarter of 2024 is expected to see a surge in ad spending, with US$299.2 billion projected globally. Retailers, in particular, will allocate US$45.6 billion to advertising during this period, with US$6.8 billion spent on TV and US$1.6 billion on connected TV platforms. Retail media platforms, such as Amazon, are also poised for growth, with spending expected to rise 16.4% to US$46.2 billion in 4Q24 alone.

Technology and electronics companies are anticipated to be the largest spenders in online retail media environments, allocating US$7.2 billion in 4Q24, a 19% increase from last year. Fast-moving consumer goods sectors, including food and cosmetics, are also increasing their retail media budgets significantly.  

In Latin America, between 2025 and 2028, retail media spending is projected to increase by 28% annually—2.4 times faster than the region's overall digital advertising growth rate of 12%. By 2028, retail media is expected to represent 15% of the total digital ad spend in Latin America, reaching approximately US$5.45 billion. EMARKETER anticipates that this investment could double by 2032, pushing retail media in the region to the US$10 billion mark.

Focusing on Brazil and Mexico, the growth rates stand at 42% and 40% respectively, twice the global average. These two countries are set to lead global retail media growth, followed by France and the United Kingdom. By year-end, retail media ad spending is forecast to reach US$154.8 billion globally, with further growth of 14.8% in 2025 and 13.5% in 2026, culminating in a US$201.6 billion market.

“Our latest forecast anticipates US$104 billion in incremental advertising spend worldwide this year, the largest rise in history outside of 2021,” said James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence, and Forecasting, WARC. “However, companies need to be cautious about uncertainties stemming from geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes.”