Mexico Retail Sales Edge Up 1.7% Amid Weak Demand

Retailers affiliated with ANTAD posted 1.7% same-store sales growth in March, signaling a modest recovery but still subdued consumer demand amid 4.59% inflation and weakening confidence. The slowdown—particularly in self-service and department stores—underscores pressure on discretionary spending, while specialized formats show relatively stronger resilience.

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Sales from retailers affiliated with Mexico’s National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD) rose 1.7%year over year in March on a same-store basis, signaling a modest recovery but continued subdued consumer demand. The figure marks an improvement from February’s 1.1% increase but remains below the 2% growth recorded in January, according to ANTAD’s monthly report. On a total-store basis, which includes openings over the past 12 months, sales grew 3.8% in March compared with the same month in 2025.

For the first quarter, same-store sales increased 2%, while total-store sales rose 4.1%. In absolute terms, ANTAD members reported sales of MX$134.3 billion (US$7.75 billion) in March, bringing the cumulative total for January through March to MX$388.9 billion (US$22.45 billion).

“The figures represent an improvement compared with February but remain weak because they have not reached January levels,” said Antonio Hernández, senior analyst, Actinver Casa de Bolsa. He added that same-store sales growth is likely to remain in the low- to mid-single digits for the rest of the year, as no significant short-term catalysts are expected.

Despite being the second-best monthly performance of 2026, March results confirm a pattern of moderate consumption. Growth levels remain below those seen in previous years. Between 2021 and 2024, same-store sales growth in March ranged from 4.1% to 8.8%, compared with 1.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.

Performance varied significantly by retail segment. Specialized stores, including pharmacies and apparel retailers, posted the strongest results, with same-store sales increasing 4.9% and total-store sales rising 7.9%. These gains outpaced other formats and indicate more resilient demand in niche categories.

In contrast, self-service stores, including major supermarket chains, reported the weakest growth. Same-store sales in this segment rose just 0.3% in March, while total-store sales increased 2.5%. Meanwhile, department stores also showed limited momentum, with same-store sales growing 0.9% and total-store sales rising 2.1%, reflecting cautious consumer spending in discretionary categories.

The overall retail performance occurred against a backdrop of rising inflation and declining consumer confidence. Mexico’s annual inflation rate reached 4.59% in March, its highest level in 17 months, driven by increases in food and energy prices, according to INEGI data. 

At the same time, consumer confidence fell 0.3 points month over month and declined 2 points compared with March 2025. The combination of higher prices and weaker sentiment has weighed on purchasing behavior, particularly in essential and discretionary retail segments.

Shift to Smaller Formats Gains Momentum in Mexican Retail

The moderate growth reported by ANTAD in March reflects a broader structural shift in Mexico’s retail sector, where companies are moving away from large-format stores toward smaller, proximity-based concepts. According to ANTAD’s “2025 Results and 2026 Projection” report, nearly 1,700 compact or specialized stores were opened during 2025. The association projects same-store sales growth of 3.9% in 2026, indicating steady but measured expansion as retailers adapt to evolving consumer behavior.

The transition is driven by the rise of a “hybrid consumer” who prioritizes speed and convenience over traditional bulk shopping. “In a retail environment expanding toward smaller formats, the difference will lie in daily execution,” said Francisco Martínez, vice president of sales at Teamcore México. “It is no longer enough to open more stores; it is essential to operate with precision, visibility and data-driven decision-making.”

Retailers are increasingly relying on technology, including artificial intelligence, to manage operations and maintain efficiency across growing store networks. One of the most active players in this shift is Chedraui, which is prioritizing proximity formats in its expansion strategy. The company plans to open 152 new stores in 2026, with 147 in Mexico. Of those, about 130 units — nearly 90% — will operate under its Supercito format.

By the third quarter of 2025, Supercito had become Chedraui’s most widespread format, with 277 locations, surpassing its 214 hypermarkets. The retailer expects to expand its sales floor in Mexico by 5.7% and by 1.6% in the United States, for consolidated growth of 4.3%. Capital expenditure for 2026 is set at 3.3% of projected consolidated sales.

Chedraui forecasts same-store sales growth of 3% to 4% in Mexico and total sales growth of 8% to 9%. The company is also implementing efficiency measures to offset rising labor costs and has reaffirmed its participation in the government’s price-control program, which caps a basic basket of goods at 910 pesos.

The company’s push into proximity retail intensifies competition in a segment expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 7.68% through 2033. In total, the sector is expected to add about 3,000 new stores in 2026.