Mexico’s Retail Market: New Investment Frontier

Summary: International retailers are increasing their investment in Mexico through a combination of new stores, distribution centers, e-commerce, automation, artificial intelligence and local sourcing. Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, IKEA, Falabella, and Amazon are directing capital toward major consumer and industrial markets including Queretaro, Aguascalientes, Nuevo Leon, Guanajuato and Jalisco, reflecting a broader shift toward integrated physical and digital retail networks. 

Mexico’s retail market is attracting capital from some of the world’s largest retailers, with investment increasingly moving beyond traditional store openings into logistics, technology, supply chains and smaller-format locations.

Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, IKEA, Falabella and Amazon are among the international companies expanding their presence in Mexico this year. Their strategies differ, but together they point to a retail market where scale, proximity to consumers, digital infrastructure and regional population growth are shaping investment decisions.

The expansion is taking place despite a more cautious consumer environment and uncertainty surrounding global trade. Mexico’s retail sector is expected to add at least 3,000 stores across self-service, department, specialty, and convenience formats in 2026, while sales are projected to grow at least 5%, according to a study by consultancy Todo Retail, as reported by MBN. 

Jorge Quiroga, Founder and CEO, Todo Retail, said retailers will focus on markets where they can still "discover new clients," allowing the sector to grow in both sales and openings even in a slowing economy. Mexico currently has 96,000 points of sale across self-service, department, convenience, and specialty channels. 

For international retailers, the opportunity is therefore not simply about opening more stores. Companies are increasingly investing in distribution networks, automation, artificial intelligence, e-commerce and local sourcing to build capacity around Mexico’s changing consumption patterns. 

Walmart: Capital at National Scale

Walmart de México y Centroamérica is deploying one of the largest retail investment programs in the country. The company plans to invest approximately MX$43 billion (US$2.37 billion) in Mexico and Central America in 2026, 10% more than in the previous year. The investment is divided among store remodeling and maintenance, new stores and clubs, supply-chain expansion, automation and technology, reported MBN. 

About 42% of the investment is earmarked for remodeling and maintaining existing stores, while 26% will go toward new stores and clubs. Another 24% will support supply-chain expansion and automation, with the remaining 8% dedicated to technology, including data management, digital shopping platforms and automation at stores and distribution centers. The strategy illustrates how international retail investment in Mexico is moving beyond physical footprints.

Walmart has already established one of the country's largest retail networks, giving it access to consumers in virtually every region. Its capital deployment is consequently focused not only on adding locations but also on increasing the productivity of its existing network.

The company’s logistics investments also connect retail expansion with Mexico’s industrial geography. Walmart has announced a distribution center in Guanajuato with an investment of more than US$500 million. The facility is expected to serve more than 600 stores and clubs across Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas. 

Home Depot: Stores, Technology and Local Sourcing

Home Depot is taking a similar approach, combining physical expansion with technology and supply-chain investment. The US home-improvement retailer plans to invest MX$4.788 billion (US$267.16 million) in Mexico in 2026. MBN reported that the commitment is the company's largest annual investment in the country in a decade and 25% above the previous year. 

Home Depot plans to open three stores in 2026, increasing its Mexican footprint to 145 locations. The investment is part of a broader strategy. In 2025, Home Depot announced plans to invest more than US$1.3 billion in Mexico between 2025 and 2030, with the objective of expanding its network from 140 to 165 stores.

The company is also targeting greater local sourcing. Home Depot previously said that 85% of its products were sourced from Mexican suppliers and that it aims to reach 100% by 2028. That makes Home Depot's expansion relevant beyond retail real estate. Increasing domestic sourcing can create additional opportunities for Mexican manufacturers, logistics providers and suppliers while reducing dependence on international supply chains.

Technology is another component. Home Depot's 2026 investment includes an artificial intelligence system designed to analyze factors such as weather, product relationships and consumption patterns to improve demand forecasting and inventory management. The result is a retail investment model in which each new store is supported by a broader digital and logistical ecosystem. 

Costco Moves Into High-Growth Regional Markets

Costco is expanding through large-format warehouse clubs, with recent investment announcements concentrated in Aguascalientes and Queretaro. In January, the company announced a US$100 million investment to expand its Aguascalientes operation. The project involves a new facility on a 60,000m2 site adjacent to its existing location. Once completed, the combined property will cover approximately 90,000m2, reported MBN.  The project will increase parking capacity from 360 to 900 spaces and add a gasoline station. MBN reported that Costco intended to complete the project in late 2026.

The company is also investing another US$100 million in a new store in Corregidora, Queretaro. The location will occupy nearly 70,000 m2 and include a 15,000 m2 sales floor and more than 700 parking spaces. The project is expected to create 360 direct jobs.

Costco operated 43 locations in Mexico at the beginning of 2026 and planned to reach 47 by the end of the year. Additional locations were being considered or developed in Mexico City, Queretaro and Nuevo Leon. 

IKEA: Physical Stores and Omnichannel Retail

IKEA's Mexican strategy illustrates another dimension of international retail expansion: combining physical stores with nationwide e-commerce.

IKEA Mexico currently operates three physical locations alongside an e-commerce platform and multichannel distribution center. Its Guadalajara Expo store, which opened in 2024, became the company's largest location in Mexico at approximately 37,000 m2, reported MBN.  “Sales at Ikea Guadalajara Expo helped the business increase its turnover by 71% compared to last year. The new store offers residents more ways to shop, explore, enjoy Ikea Food, and find ideas for their homes,” shared the franchise. MBN reported that the Guadalajara store increased IKEA Mexico's turnover by 71% during its first full year of operation.

The company has also expanded its digital reach. In 2024, IKEA Mexico extended e-commerce coverage to all 32 states and added 46 pickup points. Home deliveries increased 20%, while sales rose 14%. The model indicates that international retailers do not necessarily need to reproduce traditional store networks to reach consumers nationwide. Instead, stores can operate as physical destinations while distribution centers, pickup points, and e-commerce platforms extend the company's reach into regions where a full-size store may not yet be economically justified.

This is particularly relevant in Mexico, where major metropolitan areas can support large-format retail while smaller cities may be better served through digital channels or smaller points of contact. 

Falabella Expands Through Sodimac

Chile-based Grupo Falabella is another international retailer increasing its investment across Latin America while maintaining Mexico as a strategic market. Alejandro González, CEO, presented the plan, highlighting that 2025 delivered historically strong results and a broad-based recovery across all business units. The 2026 allocation represents the largest single-year investment in Falabella’s history and reflects a strategic shift toward optimizing high-performing retail spaces and strengthening operational efficiency. 

The company announced a record US$900 million investment plan for 2026, 40% above its 2025 allocation. The plan includes US$500 million for transforming, expanding and modernizing existing physical assets and 17 new stores across Latin America, reported MBN. 

González said current retail dynamics favor enhanced customer experience over sheer selling space. “Today, customers are not only looking for products, but for experiences,” he said. “We do not need more square meters to grow sales, but better square meters.” 

Mexico is identified as a priority market for continued Sodimac expansion and diversification of Banco Falabella's offering. Sodimac's presence also connects Falabella's expansion with the broader home-improvement segment, where Home Depot is simultaneously increasing its investment.

The competitive landscape is consequently becoming more international, particularly in categories associated with housing, construction, home improvement and household consumption. 

Amazon: Retail Capital Without Traditional Store Expansion

Rather than relying primarily on physical stores, Amazon is investing heavily in fulfillment infrastructure, technology, logistics and cloud computing. The company announced a US$6 billion investment in Mexico through 2026 and said the investment would create more than 50,000 direct and indirect jobs, reported MBN. 

The company has expanded distribution infrastructure in Nuevo Leon and Jalisco, while its Mexican marketplace has also become an important channel for domestic sellers. Amazon reported that approximately 27,000 Mexican businesses were active on its marketplace in 2025, with sellers using its fulfillment and logistics infrastructure to reach consumers nationwide and international markets, wrote for MBN Renata Arvizu, Country Manager Mexico Amazon Marketplace. 

This means that Amazon's retail footprint should not be measured solely by warehouses or employment. Its investment creates infrastructure that allows thousands of third-party businesses to participate in Mexico's digital retail economy.

The company's planned investment in AWS infrastructure also adds another layer to the model. Digital retail increasingly depends on data centers, cloud computing, payment infrastructure, artificial intelligence and logistics networks.