Summer Retail: Using AI, Data to Anticipate Behavioral Shifts

The summer of 2024 delivered an important lesson for Mexico’s retail sector: We can no longer plan a season based on what happened the year before. Summer 2024 was one of the most intense on record — not just because of extreme heat, but because of the drastic shift in how people consumed, moved, and prioritized their purchases.

From my role as co-founder of Getin, I witnessed firsthand how extreme heat abruptly transformed consumer habits. Clients who typically planned their seasonal strategies months in advance were forced to make last-minute adjustments in response to an unexpected surge in demand for products like fans, air conditioners, ice, cold drinks, and even beer.

What the Heat Revealed About Consumption

The heat wave that swept across Mexico led to, among other things, a more than 129% increase in fan and air conditioner sales on platforms like Mercado Libre in just two weeks. Meanwhile, the National Alliance of Small Retailers (ANPEC) reported shortages of beer and soft drinks in small neighborhood stores. These behaviors weren’t random — they were a direct consequence of a changing environment that many were not prepared to respond to.

And while some managed to ride the wave, others were simply overwhelmed by the demand.

What this summer made clear is that traditional seasonal planning strategies are becoming obsolete. Today, the only real way to stay ahead is through real-time data analysis and the use of artificial intelligence.

At Getin, we’ve developed tools that help retailers understand customer behavior at every level — from the most basic (how many people walk past a store) to the more complex (how long they stay inside, what times of day see the most traffic, and which external factors, like weather, influence behavior).

AI as a Competitive Edge — and Safety Net

During the summer of 2024, some retailers that implemented predictive analytics were able to maintain optimal inventory and staffing levels, avoiding losses from stockouts or operational strain. From my experience leading Getin, I can confidently say that those who base their decisions on data don’t just react better, they anticipate more precisely what’s coming.

For example, Walmart Mexico reported a 5.5% increase in sales during 2Q24, driven in part by the Hot Sale, Mother’s Day, and soaring temperatures. Interestingly, they attributed part of their success to the use of analytical tools that helped them better understand their consumers. This is a clear example of how data is no longer optional — it’s an essential foundation for operating effectively.

Are We Ready for Next Summer?

Consumer behavior is becoming more dynamic — shaped not just by social or economic trends, but by unpredictable factors like weather. Heat waves, heavy rains, changes in urban mobility — all of it impacts purchasing decisions.

That’s why, instead of asking what worked last summer, we need to start asking, what is the data telling us today to help us prepare for tomorrow?

In an increasingly volatile environment, relying on intuition is no longer enough. The ability to make decisions based on real, accurate, and contextualized information is what will set true leaders apart from those still trying to keep up.

Summer 2024 was a wake-up call. The next one could be an opportunity, but only if we’re ready.